Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Shipping

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s power constraints and blockading of roads & highways in Peru are impacting the production output of several of the base metals.  (mostly of Cu & Zn +/- Pb).  We believe these events will have temporary effect, but the markets are already tight.
  • The world is progressively recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic.  Increasingly talk is turning to ‘living with covid’, however it appears that many people are not paying attention and are expecting the ‘old normal’ to return.  Epidemiologists caution that we still need to be careful, as there is still much to be learned about the Covig-19 strain(s). 
  • Shipping data illustrates the slowing of activity in response to multiple drivers that are restricting supply and demand for many commodities during a period of high uncertainty, despite economies showing signs of recovery.  Recovery will progress and make good, but at present it is a battle. 
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight (very) tight markets.  The prices are now responding strongly to low stocks.
  • New Energy Vehicles’ much touted massive growth rates might grind to a halt in a couple of years if some battery configuration changes do not become available.  Matau believes that the resources industry will struggle to supply raw materials at the optimistic growth rates of the manufacturers and entrepreneurs.  Actual rates will have to reduce to the actual rates of raw materials supply growth.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  The power crises could shift forecasts of copper oversupply next year to shortfalls.  + Mexico – changes its rules!

Cobalt  Sales of NEVs reduce upon cuts to subsidies in China.  Co is scarce and sought after. 

*Nickel  If Ni-free batteries do not become available, the EV revolution grind to halt in only ~2 years. 

Zinc & Lead  Refined output of Zn is stressed (power shortages).  China’s Pb-acid battery output is growing.  

Tin  The tin market has yet to resolve the supply-demand imbalance evident throughout this year. 

Aluminium  Rusal plans to supply Al to China to meet its (uncharacteristic) shortfall in production. 

Gold  Gold price up fractionally (in USD).  Hallmarking is now mandatory in India.

Platinum & Palladium  Top 10 Platinum producers. 

*Oil  Power cuts in China.  Coal shortages in India.  A scramble for petrol in Britain.  … and more!

*Iron Ore  China’s northern steel mills asked to cut production from mid-Nov21 to mid-Mar22. 

*Shipping  Dry bulk market – two more solid Qtrs.  Watch Mar22Qtr & Jun22Qtr. 

General 

Port of Singapore – Shipping:  impacted by numerous disruptive forces. Containers are strongest.

Port Hedland – Iron Ore:  impacted by numerous disruptive forces.  Excl-China sources have best growth.

USA – Yields, Gold, Copper & Oil prices:  As expected

USA Energy End Use:  Trying to recover from disruption(s), but how much will it achieve?

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20211008 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

BH rig Counts – Germany

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s power constraints and blockading of roads & highways in Peru are impacting the production output of several of the base metals.  (mostly of Cu & Zn +/- Pb).  We believe these events will have temporary effect, but the markets are already tight.
  • The world is progressively recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic.  Increasingly talk is turning to ‘living with covid’, however it appears that many people are not paying attention and are expecting the ‘old normal’ to return.  Epidemiologists caution that we still need to be careful, as there is still much to be learned about the Covig-19 strain(s). 
  • German economic data is showing a recovery in Durable GFoods and Construction, though these data have yet to translate into improved industrial production.  So far it looks like German IP has recovered to the pre-covid downtrend, and has not digested the news of the improving durables data. 
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.
  • Baltic shipping indices report on the demand for shipping, which is at 13 yr highs!  This is not the language the general media is speaking in terms of the global economy …?

SUMMARY  

Copper  Mongolian Govt warns RIO on delays to Oyu Tolgoi.  Peruvian blockades continue.  

*Cobalt  Prices for cobalt intermediate products are expected to lift following China’s Golden Week.    

*Nickel  Despite widespread poorer outlooks, Ni & Sn are expected to fare well on booming EV sales.  

*Zinc & Lead  China power rationing and blockades in Peru are impacting supply of Zn & Pb. 

*Tin  “Another week, another wild ride on the tin roller coaster”.  It is really tight!

*Aluminium  Power shortages are impacting Al smelters in China and Europe. 

Gold  Gold price is trading in a band, with price volatile, but little changed this week. 

Platinum & Palladium  PDI reported notable increases in Pt jewellery sales in the Jun21Qtr.

*Oil  Oil prices surged on tighter supply, at least until OPEC+ increases supply in November. 

Iron Ore  BHP forges ahead with its new South Flank mine despite reported softer outlooks for the sector. 

*Shipping  The Baltic Index, reflecting shipping demand, increased to a 13 year peak.

General 

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Global rig #s recovering from Covid, which made crew logistics hard.

*Germany – Industrial Production:  IP has low growth, the strong growth from Durables has yet to tsfr into IP.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20211001 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China – USA – Power – Japan

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s power constraints, largely self imposed, are restraining China’s production and also demand for particular products.  Part of the target is to have clear skies over Beijing for the 2022 Winter Olympics.  This situation is still to work through.  However there has already been impact on several commodities’ production and prices, attributable to the power cuts, on top of China’s trade tactics. 
  • The world is progressively recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, though Covid is still seriously impacting shipping causing meaningful delays and cost increases
  • USA economic data is showing a recovery from the covid-19 pandemic under way with several data series now back to pre-covid levels.    
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

Copper  RIO declared Force Majeure on its Kennecott Cu operations.  Temporary, but still, a disruption. 

*Cobalt  Demand is leaning toward Australian Co, to avoid the stigma(s) associated with DRC material.  

Nickel  BHP’s Kwinana plant yielded its first nickel sulphate crystals.   

*Zinc & Lead  China’s power rationing & impact on supply & demand for Zn.  Pb: Mt Isa smelter 90 years old. 

Tin  China’s power crisis impacted Ni & Sn production & prices.  … might need Australian coal.

Aluminium  Winter is coming to the PRC, with more power cuts.  Expect impact on Al output. 

Gold  Strong retail & ETF demand, but less than outflows. 

*Platinum & Palladium  Russian govt proposed changes to mineral extraction taxes (MET) for Russian firms from 2022.

Oil  If prices reach higher than USD 90/bbl, could drive demand destruction. 

Iron Ore  FMG’s Solomon shut down upon accident.  India’s monsoon reduced output in September.. 

Shipping  Baltic indices all higher on China port congestion, demand for iron ore & coal.  Grains reduced.

General 

USA & Australia – Yields & Rates:  inverted curves for prior financial crises but not for covid.

Japan – Industrial Production:  growth positive though is the last mo ‘flattered’ by low prior mo

USA – Purchasing Managers’ Index:  Strong at >60, though PMI usually peaks at ~60.

USA – Industrial Production:  IP is back to pre-covid levels (which were declining).

USA – Durable Goods et al:  Durables are strong, though Vehicles are weak.

USA – Construction Spending:  Private & Residential spending strong, Public & Non-Res weak.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210917 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China, Singapore

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • Sorry Gold Bugs!” A major investment house has sold its interests in gold, assessing that the returns in such a low interest rate environment from a non-earning risk protection investment, do not justify holding costs.  Matau prefers to hold gold interests in equities that have production growth.  Production growth (along with other key criteria being met) assures better cash flow growth in all phases of price cycles, than non-growth entities.
  • While the world is progressively recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, Covid is still seriously impacting shipping causing meaningful delays and cost increases.  An example here shows the impact and delays in shipping a container of shoes (per shoe) from China to Los Angeles.
  • Singapore shipping traffic shows a reduction in traffic in July & August, notably in bulk commodities, with recent reductions also in tankers.  Container traffic is also affected but less do than other segments.
  • In the light of the above, and China’s trade battles, China’s Industry and Energy data is worth examination, as it provides granularity to what is otherwise usually highly generalised statements.  
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Concerns over labour action in Chile is dissipating, as labour contracts are agreed. Chile’s miners have widely settled labour contract agreements (ranging fro 3-5 yrs) without notable strike action.

*Cobalt  China plans to encourage mergers in the NEV segments to achieve size (market power).   This is consistent with China’s other campaigns (iron ore & other) to merge intra-segment entities to generate larger companies with more global market power. 

Nickel  Nickel mine production is forecast by Fitch to grow strongly from 2021-2023.

*Zinc & Lead  Zn mines recovering from Covid (ex China).  Covid outbreaks in China are threatening mine growth.

*Tin  New tin supply is not keeping pace with growing demands.     

*Aluminium  A disruption to bauxite supply from Guinea remains a concern, particularly for China & Russia.

*Gold  “Sorry gold bugs!”.  World’s largest fund manager steps away from gold.

Platinum & Palladium  Of the PGE’s Pd has is in the best position for price recovery.

*Oil  Iran plans to boost oil exports despite remaining USA sanctions. 

Iron Ore  Reduced Chinese steel output drives less iron ore imports and lower prices. 

Shipping  Baltic indices show that shipping is in strong demand.  Possibly tightness due to covid delays. 

General 

*Singapore Shipping:  Traffic generally slowed down for the past couple of months. Passenger shipping traffic has recovered (oddly in total gross tonnage terms, though the numbers of ships reported have dropped markedly, implying that it is only the big ships that are returning … so far).

*China – Industry & Energy Output:  Steel down markedly, manuf. goods mixed, generally up.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210910 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Vietnam, South Korea, UK, Germany

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • South Korea & Vietnam are two of the Asian countries that are actually ‘growing’, as emerging industrial nations.  (South Korea has been doing this for longer than Vietnam).  Chinese and Japanese companies migrated some manufacturing operations to lower cost jurisdictions during the 2000’s and onward.  This benefited countries like Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. 
  • UK & Germany are recovering from covid, though often the recovery is to the pre-covid downtrend (so far). 
  • Iron ore shipments from Port Hedland reduced modestly in August, notably in China, though the ex-China destinations reported strong growth (from much smaller bases than China’s). 
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Chilean miner strikes appear (largely) to have been averted. 

*Cobalt  Tightening feedstock supplies expected to support prices for the rest of 2021.  

*Nickel  BSX continues to get strong Ni massive-sulphide intercepts. .

Zinc & Lead  Zn conc TCs increased upon more availability.  Pb remains tight in Europe but ample in China.

Tin  China’s tin output increased despite restricted power consumption.      

Aluminium  The coup in Guinea could upset global aluminium if bauxite operations are affected.

*Gold  USA Fed Governors widely talking about tapering off on bond purchasing.  ‘Healthy’ economy. 

*Platinum & Palladium  Pt demand increasing on increased catalyst loadings in China, and substitution of Pd. .

Oil  Iraq is rebounding from the coronavirus pandemic.  Total is committing to large projects in Iraq. 

*Iron Ore  Brazilian red-tape may slow output growth and support prices further. 

*Shipping  Shipping demand has continued to growth through 2020-21..

General 

*South Korea – Industrial Production:  Growth since 1975, & back to pre-covid levels.

*Vietnam – Industry output:  Strong growth to 2019.  Covid knocked 2020 about in segments.

*Port Hedland – Iron Ore exports:  Total exports reduced, China down, but ex-China up strongly.

Germany – Industrial Production:  IP & durables are recovering, construction is work in progress.

United Kingdom – Industrial Production:  Recovery appears to be to lower than pre-covid levels.

Please note that Commodity Review is a single user subscription.   

Please click on the following link for this week’s publication Commodity Review 10 September 2021 link

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210827 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China Industry and Energy – USA Durables

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s Industry reported lower steel product output and stronger Energy demand, though manufactured products in July had quite mixed outcomes.  This may be related to the proximity to the location(s) of the Beijing Olympics and China’s desire for clean air during the games.  
  • Copper fundamentals remain strong.  
  • USA’s industry seems to have mixed outlooks, with good Durables growth, though poor vehicles demand, and relatively stable demand for electronics.
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Fundamentals remain intact and there will be growing copper demand ahead.

Cobalt  Fall in China’s Co imports in July due to ongoing issues at Durban port – South Africa.  Not over yet

*Nickel  BSX reported a 375m Ni-sulphide intercept at Ban Phuc in Vietnam.  Development PFS under way.

Zinc & Lead  Chinese Zn smelter outage due to gas leakages.  TC’s for Pb concs up on steep price backw’dn..

*Tin  DRC waiver on export ban for concentrates (which was put in to ‘encourage’ in-country refining).  

Aluminium  Pricing surged on expectations China will curb supply & emissions (at least for Beijing Olympics.

Gold  USA Fed anticipated to reduce bond purchases, with the ‘taper’ to begin later this year.  

Platinum & Palladium  Global vehicle markets facing reduced demand due to covid and disrupted parts supply..

*Oil  OPEC+ expected to continue with plans to revive production despite recent price falls. 

Iron Ore  Global iron ore production growth will accelerate in coming years according to Fitch. 

*Shipping  The dry bulk market has rallied to levels not seen since 2010, though fundamentals have softened. 

General 

*Tungsten:  Outlook for APT demand and prices into Dec21HY is strong.

*China – Industry & Energy Output:  Steel output dropped markedly, though Energy output is up .

*USA Durable Goods:  Durables are strong but vehicles are weak and electronics are flat.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210820 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

USA-IP, China-Tspt.

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s transport data reports freight traffic has largely recovered, though passenger traffic has redcovered to about half way to pre-covid levels.
  • Copper production in Chile is threatened by water shortages. 
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year, and may have found a floor.  Sentiment is a key driver.  Investors should include production growth among their investment criteria.
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Water shortages threaten Cu production in Chile.  

*Cobalt  New Zambian President to ramp up Cu & Co mining.   

Nickel  Supply, Demand & Quality – Sulphide or NPI.  The Ni market could bifurcate.

Zinc & Lead  Pb in deep backwardation.  Zn: AON in Gabon is testing a long strike length with good results.  

Tin  Producers struggling to lift production to meet high prices. 

Aluminium  Tomago Al smelter (NSW) to move toward renewable power.

Gold  USA’s economic recovery has slowed.  Fed may slow the taper plan. 

Platinum & Palladium  Major Pt miners leaning to renewable power generation to avoid Sth Africa’s unstable system.

*Oil  Slowig demand for crude oil is in contrast to increased OPEC+ output. 

*Iron Ore  Demand growth for iron ore historically outstripped steel.  However that may be in balance now.

*Shipping  Demand for bulk-freight shipping is strong.

General 

*USA – New House Starts:  on mo-on-mo data growth is slow.

*China – freight & passenger traffic:  Freight largely recovered.  Passengers only half way.

*USA – Industrial Production:  IP has returned to slightly above the pre-covid down-trend.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Reveiw 20210813 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Shipping

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China has  issued an air quality control plan for the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022, imposing ultra-low emission standards across the steel and power sectors until March 2022.  This is one of the reasons for curbing steel production and power generation, at least in the interim.   
  • Shipping data for Port Hedland and Singapore highlights falls in traffic in July despite 12mo yr-on-yr modest +ve growth. 
    • Container recoveries reflect a recovering world economy (despite covid) even to the extent that some bulk carriers are being seconded to carry containers (creating a separate set of safety & bureaucracy headaches).  
  • Copper prices are responding to strikes in Chile with more mines’ workers to vote on any action.  High prices have emboldened workers to push for improved pay (possibly as profit share).  
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year, and may have found a floor.  Sentiment is a key driver.  Investors should include production growth among their investment criteria.
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Copper miners on strike in Chile at Andina and are voting at Escondida.  

Cobalt  Tesla is using two blockchain solutions to track sources of raw materials (Co & Ni) for its batteries.  

*Nickel  Demand for stainless steel has soared, and outlook for electric vehicles is good.

Zinc & Lead  Wood Mackenzie forecasts strong growth in demand for Al, Cu & Zn for solar panels.  Pb is tight.

Tin  Sn & Al prices forecast, by Antaike, to outperform other base metals in Dec21HY.  Limited supply.  

Aluminium  Rusal increased Al sales for Jun21HY, but faces export taxes which may reduce Dec21HY sales.

*Gold  Asian retail demand (India & China) picked up markedly on recent lower gold prices. 

*Platinum & Palladium  Palladium prices may moderate as platinum re-substitution into catalytic converters emerges.

Oil  Newer Chinese oil refineries, ‘Teapot 2.0’, are better suited to China’s goals than ‘Teapot 1.0’. 

*Iron Ore  Iron ore prices have fallen markedly, Miners still very profitable.  Volumes have slipped in July.

*Shipping  Container ships in high demand as economies, even seconding bulk carriers to carry containers.

General 

*Port Hedland – Iron Ore:  yr-on-yr growth is modest +ve, but mo-on-mo growth fell markedly.

*Singapore – Ship Traffic:  Containers continue recovery, but bulks fell in July.  Tankers stable.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210806 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

India, USA- Construction, PMI’s

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • India is one of the key growth economies in the world.  This week Matau takes a look at its gold jewellery spending, and its resources endowment(s).  We need to have a better understanding of India.
  • Copper and cobalt markets are watching for supply disruptions.
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year.  Sentiment is a key driver. 
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.

SUMMARY  

Copper  China Molybdenum to double Cu & Co output at Tenke Furgurume mine by 2023.   

Cobalt  Cobalt market is watching supply impacts from civil unrest, covid-19 and supply curbs.  

Nickel  Vale resolved Sudbury complex though recovery to production will take time. 

Zinc & Lead  Zn & Pb concentrate TC’s increased toward end of July, on increased mined tonnages.  

Tin  Tight Chinese domestic Sn market may loosen as Yunnan Tin resumes production in August.      

Aluminium  China’s switch to imports is reshaping the global aluminium market.

Gold  Rising prices (& India’s hallmarking laws) discouraged Indian retail jewellery purchase levels. 

Platinum & Palladium  Coronavirus has dented outlook for industrial commodities. 

Oil  Saudi Arabia’s move to lift its prices to Asia may backfire.  

Iron Ore  Iron ore prices declined on seasonal weakness, and speculation on output controls. 

Shipping  Baltic indices reduced on seasonal weaknesses, and forecasts of reduced demand growth.

General 

India – maps of gold jewellery expenditure & location of base & precious mineral deposits. 

USA – PMI:  Outlook still favourable, but at slower rates than last month.

USA – Construction Spending:  +ve for Private & Residential.  -ve for Public & Non-Residential

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210730 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Gold demand, Durables USA, IP Germany & UK

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • Further flooding in China continues to disrupt transport, though industry reports little (direct) impact.
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain very tight.  Markets are now considering something they have ignored for years … the “fundamentals”, which are carrying more weight than the other market force:  “sentiment”.
  • USA’s demand for Sn, Pb & Al is import (competition) dependent.  Most inventories are stockpiled in locations closer to the masjor demand centres, China and other Asia.  
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year.  Total demand has been similarly flat, though segmental makeup of that demand has varied considerably through the year. 
  • IP for Germany and UK has recovered to the pre-covid doan-trend.  It remains to be seen whether that downtrend continues. 
  • USA is, (somewhat like China), reporting Durable goods orders recovery to above pre-covid levels.  Will these level be sustained, or impacted by the current covid wave?
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  China’s scrap Cu imports are surging, seeing some concerns about demand for primary Cu.  

Cobalt  Jervois Mining (JRV) expanding into downstream Co processing.  

*Nickel  Poseidon Nickel (POS)’ scoping study on Black Swan.  Tesla filed a patent on recovery of Ni & Co from batteries. 

Zinc & Lead  Teck’s Red Dog output recovered from a yr ago.  China’s transport has been disrupted by flooding.  

Tin  USA has no primary production capacity for Sn or Pb, and relies on imports. 

Aluminium  USA’s supply of Al is subject to import dependency, competing with other global users for supply..

*Gold  The current Au market is not a picture that you see too often.  All factors are rising at once.

Platinum & Palladium  Global demand for Pt bar & coin and ETFs is strong. 

Oil  Oil demand outlook is subject to impacts from the covid-19 pandemic. 

Iron Ore  *China’s steel production cap has not been successful, but casts shadows on growth forecasts. 

Shipping  *Congestion patterns in Chinese ports not expected to normalise until early 2022.

General 

*World Gold – JuneQtr supply/demand:  Total demand was flat.  Segments changed over the yr.

*USA – Durable Goods Orders et al:  Durables recovered to pre-covid levels.

*Germany – Industrial Production et al:  IP has recovered to pre-covid down-trend.

*United Kingdom – Industrial Production et al:  IP has recovered to pre-covid down-trend.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions (IEA March 2021)

Today, the global energy system is in the midst of a major transition to clean energy. The efforts of an ever-expanding number of countries and companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to net zero call for the massive deployment of a wide range of clean energy technologies, many of which in turn rely on critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements. This World Energy Outlook special report on The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions identifies risks to key minerals and metals that – left unaddressed – could make global progress towards a clean energy future slower or more costly, and therefore hamper international efforts to tackle climate change.

This paper, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, by the IEA is a detailed look at the critical minerals and metals required for the perceived (forecast) growth in demand. It includes a host of references in its appendix as well.

It is very worth reading.

However it is Matau Advisory’s view that the report pays little attention to, and simply assumes the ability or capacity of the resources industry to supply the required raw materials (minerals & metals) at the proposed growth rates. On average it takes 6-10 years from discovery drill hole through evaluation, feasibility studies, permitting, environmental & heritage studies (often conducted in parallel), Financial Investment Decision, construction & development, commissioning, to production at name-plate rates. Many of the key commodities are currently in short supply (at current prices) even at the relatively low demand growth rates of the current time.

The supply of the key minerals and metals (Cu, Ni, Li, Mn, Co, graphite, Cr, Mo, Zn, REE, Si, and some others) will be critical to achieve those growth rates.

Commodity Review 20200710 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Exploration Spending, Iron Ore, Japan Orders

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Japan’s Orders to Machinery (May data) also hitting lows not seen for a long time (last week reported on IP segments).
  • Port Hedland iron ore exports at record highs, reflecting China’s surging steel output, also demanding coking coal to match.  However while Cape vessels demand is now flat demand for Panamaxes has jumped.
  • Australian exploration expenditure (Mar20Qtr) showed strong growth for Au & Cu exploration spend.
  • Base metals’ pinch-point graphs show metal prices beginning to rise, in response to (stimulus driven) expectations of increased demand, and recognition of tight supply.
  • Gold prices lifted this week, as did share markets.  Oddly the conditions posed by Covid now have positive factors for both markets:  risk & stimulus.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  RIO slashed forecast Cu output from Oyu Tolgoi.  Further tightens markets.

*Cobalt  KoBold Metals, a start-up by a coalition of billionaires, plans exploring Canada for cobalt.  

*Nickel  Ni prices in recovery mode.  Near term supply issues.  Long term demand growth to squeeze.

*Zinc & Lead  Zn & Pb mine supply and demand both disrupted.  Downstream activity is picking up

Tin  Alphamin-Bisie performing well.  Long term Sn demand to outstrip production.  Way to go yet.  

Aluminium  China is unlikely to dominate growth in the Al market in the next two decades.

*Gold  Both equities and gold prices are increasing.  Current conditions may suit both.

Platinum & Palladium  Russian Pd output un-phased by Covid.  Provides Russia with stronger market position.

*Oil  IEA’s 2020 demand forecast lifted, though USA covid-19 cases may dampen demand growth. 

Coal  Steel production growth needs to be matched with coking coal supply.  Met-coal cost curves.

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore stocks are stable.  This year’s wet season has had minimal impact on miners.

Shipping  Panamax rates jumped this week, with Cape rates unchanged. 

General 

*Pt Hedland – iron ore exports:  China’s steel industry is surging.  Iron ore export levels are high.  

*Pinch-point graphs – Base metals:  Prices are rising while inventories return to low levels.

*Australia – Mineral and Petroleum Exploration Spending:  Growth in spend on Au & Cu.

*Japan – Orders to Machinery:  negative growth for total orders.  Limited positive segments.

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Please click on the following link for this week’s publication.  Commodity Review –10 July 2020 link

Regards,

Andrew

We welcome suggestions for future evaluation and analysis.

If you have any difficulty downloading reports via the hyperlinks, please contact us.  

Andrew Pedler

Matau Advisory Pty Ltd

Resources & Finance – Research & Analysis

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MALENY Qld 4552

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web:  www.matauadvisory.com.au

skype:  reldepa

Andrew Pedler: Authorised Representative No. 450326 of

Matau Advisory Pty Ltd:  ABN 90 165 923 437

& AFSL Corporate Authorised Representative No 240877 of
Centec Securities Pty Ltd  (ACN 007 281 745)

Matau Advisory is a resource-finance consultancy, offering consulting services in resources finance, research, analysis and advice, including bespoke reports or published research.  Matau Advisory also monitors and evaluates key commodity and currency markets and economic metrics.  The principal of Matau Advisory, Andrew Pedler, has a strong background in research and analysis of resource companies, including technical and financial evaluation, sensitivities, capital structure and requirements.  Andrew has been involved in capital raising for companies including for IPO’s, funding of expansions and for existing operational growth.  His background includes experience as an exploration and mine geologist, and in financial analysis specialising in resources, including in project (debt) finance and in equities (resources).  

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Disclaimer. Whilst Matau Advisory Pty Ltd believes the information contained in this communication is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk.  To the extent permitted by law Matau Advisory Pty Ltd disclaims all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage) however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information.  Any projections contained in this communication are estimates only.  Such projections are subject to market influences and contingent upon matters outside the control of Matau Advisory Pty Ltd and therefore may not be realised in the future.The advice contained in this document is general advice.   It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs and because of that, any person should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the client’s objectives, financial situation and needs.  If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product, the client should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider the Statement before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. This communication is not to be disclosed in whole or part or used by any other party without Matau Advisory Pty Ltd’s prior written consent.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210723 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China Industry & Energy, USA IP & House starts

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s Henan (industrial and iPhone production centre) was belted by heavy flooding last week.  Another typhoon is right now approaching Shanghai.  Anticipate further disruption to transport, and possibly to industry. 
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain very tight.  Markets are now considering something they have ignored for years … the “fundamentals”, which are carrying more weight than the other market force:  “sentiment”.
  • OPEC+ continues to consider raising output.  Supply is forecast to remain tight. 
  • Iron ore prices remain high, despite China’s steel output restriction plans.  China’s steel mill capacity utilisation has reduced.  China’s iron ore output has reduced, somewhat in line with its oft repeated calls to reduce steel output, but demand remains strong and prices have only drifted off a little (i.e. remain high).
  • Droughts in China (Yunnan province) continue to impacting production of Al, Zn & Sn due to hydro-power restrictions (at least for now). 
  • Newmont has flagged that the lockdowns and restrictions brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic is increasing business and operating costs.  Expect that factor to be widespread.
  • As previously … April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Do not be impressed by such big positive numbers.  It may not be till the Dec21 Qtr when yr-on-yr growth calulations are more meaningful.  Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends, as a guide to performance.  

SUMMARY  

Copper  China to release more SRB metal stockpiles, attempting to influence prices.

*Cobalt  First Cobalt successfully recovers metals from recycled Li-ion batteries.  Technical success.  

*Nickel  BHP signs Ni supply agreement with Tesla.

Zinc & Lead  Flooding in Henan disrupts transport but less so for output of key commodities.   

Tin  Sn prices at all time highs!  Pandemic shutdowns are hindering supply chains.    

Aluminium  Al production growth has slowed markedly, on drought / power constraints.

*Gold  Gold price has not really changed since January.  Seek quality production growth.

Platinum & Palladium  World’s major Pt producers turn to renewable energy to offset unreliable Eskom power supply.

*Oil  Expectations that supply will remain tight through 2021. 

Iron Ore  China continues to attempt to limit production to 2020 levels.  Demand is driving prices up.  

Shipping  Cape rates up, Panamax down.   

General 

China:  Another Typhoon approaching Shanghai   

*China – Industry & Energy Output:  Steel and energy output positive growth.

*USA – Housing Starts:  Positive growth (recovery from covid), rates are moderating.

*USA – Industrial Production:  Growth strong yoy but flat mo-on-mo.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210716 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Freight: China, Port Hedland, Singapore

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • As for last week … April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Do not be impressed by big positive numbers.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends, as a guide to performance.  
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain tight.  Markets are now considering something they have ignored for years … the “fundamentals”, which are carrying more weight than the other market force:  “sentiment”.
  • OPEC+ is considering raising output, which will temper price increases that arise from recovering economies. 
  • Iron ore prices remain high, despite China’s steel output restriction plans.  China’s steel mill capacity utilisation has reduced.   
  • Freight data for Port Hedland (iron ore shipments), Singapore (shipping traffic) and China (freight & passenger segments) broadly show recoveries under way, with various nuances, and that passenger traffic (logically) was much more impacted by epidemics than freight traffic. 
  • Droughts in China (Yunnan province) are impacting production of Al, Zn & Sn due to hydro-power restrictions.  .

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Commodity super cycle on the horizon, and Cu market is tight and needs new identified supply. 

*Cobalt  DRC to put in a floor price for artisanal Co ores.  Co market is growing and prices are stronger.  

*Nickel  Ni prices tracking strong gains in stainless steel.  EV demand is yet to really impact Ni.  It is coming!

*Zinc & Lead  Zn mkt & Pb mkt are resilient.  Droughts in China limiting power available to smelters.

*Tin  Sn prices at all-time record levels.  Strong demand for solder / electronic goods.   Droughts / power.

Aluminium  China power cuts due to droughts, slowing production. 

Gold  Gold price moves attributed to outlook for USA bond yields and CPI. 

*Platinum & Palladium  Demand for PGEs is forecast to rise this year as economies recover (despite advent of EVs).

*Oil  Expectations of growing supply, from OPEC+ and USA. 

*Iron Ore  Iron Ore’s 2-yr bull market is not about to end!   China’s prices are at record highs. 

Shipping  Surging demand for infrastructure-related commodities (and other bulks).

General 

CPI – USA & Aust. USA bond yields, gold price:  A medley of data, some volatile. 

*Port Hedland – Iron ore:  Chinese offtake slowed but ex-China offtake jumped.

*China – Transport:  Freight transport largely recovered.  Passenger transport clawing upward?

*Singapore shipping:  Modest increases for containers, and tankers, not bulk.  Passengers positive.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210709 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Japan

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • As for last week … April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Do not be impressed by big positive numbers.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends, as a guide to performance.  
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain tight. 
  • OPEC+ is considering raising output, which will temper price increases that arise from recovering economies. 
  • Iron ore prices remain high, despite China’s steel output restriction plans.  China’s steel mill capacity utilisation has reduced.   
  • As per data in the last few weeks, economies are recovering from covid, though many appear as though they will recover to pre-covid trends (several of which were downward).  It remains to be seen whether the early trend will be preserved, improve or get worser post-covid.  USA’s history (written in its industrial electricity demand is that after a crisis recovery is to a level lower than before.

Summary

Copper  SFR granted a ML for Motheo(T3) Botswana. 

Cobalt  China’s imports increased (Australia the largest exporter to China).  Spot prices rising. 

Nickel  Sudbury labour dispute limits supply as EV demand for Ni is supposed to begin. 

Zinc & Lead  Chinese SRB sales did not prevent a deep Zn backwardation.  Demand for Pb-acid batteries grows. 

Tin  Tin supply not expected to meet demand over the next decade. 

Aluminium  China’s supply growth is to slow, but demand growth will continue. 

Gold  Factors driving gold price, including ‘froth’. 

Platinum & Palladium  Expect Pd & Pt prices to increase in line with a global recovery. 

Oil  Oil prices up on reduced USA inventories.  However OPEC+’s output plans are not certain. 

Iron Ore  Concerns re – China’s steel output controls.  Capacity utilisation has reduced. 

Shipping  Expect bottlenecks at ports and congestion-related effects to last until end-2021.

General 

USA 10 yr Bond Yields:  “who needs an EKG when the patient is passed out on the floor?”.  How useful are bond yields other than as a ‘flag’?

Pinch Point graphs:  all tight and getting tighter. 

Japan – Industrial production:  IP segments are recovering, though not yet back to pre-covid.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210702 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

USA

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Do not be impressed by big positive numbers.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends as a guide.  
  • USD has increased in value against key currencies, yet despite this, most commodity prices increased (in USD terms). 
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain tight. 
  • OPEC+ is considering raising oil prices, which will temper price increases that arise from recovering economies. 
  • Iron ore prices remain high, and China’s sales of Cu, Al & Zn SRB stocks failed to have a meaningful effect on commodity prices.  Similarly its jaw-boning to reduce iron ore and coking and thermal coal prices has had little effect. 
  • The defacto sanctions China imposed on Australian goods and commodities appears to have backfired with global prices for the same being at highs.  Matau thinks China ought to have known or learned from the failure of USA sanctions on various items against several countries, that the effect of sanctions or tariffs is primarily to increase costs for the economy of the country imposing them.

SUMMARY  

Copper  Chilean Antofagasta has secured offtake agreements with four major Chinese smelters.   

Cobalt  Unless significant investment is made in large commercial Co & Li deposits shortages will occur.  

Nickel  Ni is expected to be a key beneficiary of EV adoption (extending vehicles’ range). 

Zinc & Lead  ILZSG reports Zn & Pb is in surplus in early 2021.  China’s SRB sales had no effect on price.

Tin  Demand for tin for electronics is soaring. 

Aluminium  India is evaluating ‘aluminium-air’ batteries as an alternative to Li-ion. 

Gold  Gold in India was sold at premiums for the first time in two months.  

Platinum & Palladium  Various mine site disruptions and other constraints will continue to limit supply growth.

Oil  OPEC+ ministers’ talks are considering raising output.  Not everyone is on the same page.

Coal  Matau has discontinued coverage of coal data (due to costs). 

Iron Ore  Vale is evaluating an air-bubble lubrication of its ship hulls to reduce friction, and save fuel. 

Shipping  Sea-borne coal has been one of the dark horses of the dry-bulk shipping market. 

General 

Baker Hughes – Rig Counts – Global and North American:  North American and global rig counts have increased with rising oil prices. 

USA – Purchasing Managers’ Index:  Strong outlook for June

USA – Construction Spending:  mixed growth:  private & residential up, and public & non-residential spending down..

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210625 by Andrew Pedler – now Available

China, USA, UK, Germany

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Do not be impressed by big positive numbers.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends as a guide. 
  • Growth in electricity demand for China points to a growing economy, whereas lack of growth (or recovery from past crashes) for electricity, demand in the USA does not make a convincing growth outlook for that country. 
  • German IP data suggests its economy is weathering the covid epidemic reasonably well.
  • English IP data was on a declining trend prior to the covid epidemic and to date has recovered to that trend.
  • USD has jumped in valur on expectations of yield increases.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Global production is increasing.  China’s refined usage is down but apparent usage is up.

Cobalt  Glencore reopening Mutanda.  Hanrui Cobalt Co has applied to list in Hong Kong. 

*Nickel  Indonesian HPAL projects approaching commissioning.  Doubts remain re-efficacy and commerciality of HPAL originated battery-grade product.

Zinc & Lead  ILZSG reports Zn deficit for April.  Mining tourism in Iran.  Pb batteries for rail transport have been around for a long time, though are now being re-invented.

Tin  Tin prices up strongly on demand.  Different ratings agencies have different outlooks.     

*Aluminium  China’s first round of inventory sales (Cu, Zn, Al) barely shifted the markets’ needles.

Gold  Price up on weak USD.  We, all of us, cannot be too careful, regarding covid-19.  Newmont’s Granites.gold mine in NT is a case in point.

Platinum & Palladium  Pt price forecast to trade higher.  Pd price described with limited upside.

*Oil  Oil price up on German industry activity and USA inventory drawdowns.  OPEC+ meets on 1 July.

*Coal  >200 Mtpa of China’s capacity taken offline to celebrate 100 yrs of the founding of the CCP (1 July). 

*Iron Ore  Global steel production reached record levels in May.  Tenth month of consecutive growth.

Shipping  Shipping rates reduced for Capes & Panamax, though Supramax & Handysize demand is sound. 

General 

*USA – Electricity End-Use:  USA’s energy demand does not look like that of a growing economy.

*China – Industry & Energy Output:  Recoveries are mostly back to pre-covid levels.  Electricity demand growth is steady and positive.

*China – Transport:  Freight is recovering well.  Passenger traffic yet to recover.

*UK – Industrial Production:  IP has broadly recovered to its pre-Covid (downward) trend.

*USA – orders to Durable Goods  et al:  Mixed growth rates depending on segment(s).

*Germany – Industrial Production:  data suggests Germany has weathered Covid fairly well

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210618 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

USA – IP & House starts

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April though June, the base months in 2020 were usually the lowest data base-readings during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels as a guide. 
  • Pinch point graphs for base metals remain tight.
  • USD has jumped in valur on expectations of yield increases.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  China’s efforts to dictate pricing (by releasing stockpiles are likely in vain.  

Cobalt  COB to complete pilot plant program and initiate demonstration plant.  

*Nickel  Ni will be the key beneficiary of EV market growth.

Zinc & Lead  .Aust govt forecasts Zn surplus to 2026, though known factors may limit that outcome.  

Tin  Sn market remains very tight with several supply issues amid increasing demand.      

Aluminium  China’s Al output reduced in May due in part to restrictions in power consumption.

*Gold  Inflation expectations cited as a key price driver in the near term.   

Platinum & Palladium  Sales of American Eagle (Pt) coins are at 2nd highest record levels yr-to-date.

*Oil  Near term demand expected to be robust.   

Coal  Settlements for SSCC (Jun21Qtr) < thermal;  plus LVPCI settled for Sep21Qtr up strongly. 

*Iron Ore  China wants to be, but is not, in control of iron ore prices. 

Shipping  Freight rates in Asian regions up across all vessel types. 

General 

USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation:  Improving but below pre-covid levels.

USA – Housing Starts:  Improving but below pre-covid levels.

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210611 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Shipping

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April though June, the base months in 2020 were usually the lowest data base-readings during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels as a guide. 
  • Pinch point graphs for base metals are now all getting tighter.
  • Shipping has been flat for 2020, largely due to the covid-19 pandemic, though it showing a return to growth.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Demand for copper is returning,  Supply is challenged locally.  

*Cobalt  A very material concern around long-term shortages for cobalt, from the early to mid-2020’s.  

*Nickel  Nickel has numerous supply/demand drivers.  Surplus in low grade, but tight supply of high quality.

Zinc & Lead  Dairi Zn-Pb mine in Indonesia, now Chinese owned, has a badly flawed tailings dam design.  

Tin  Extremely tight!  Prices are highest in a decade (which was a record).      

Aluminium  Australia’s multi-billion-dollar alumina and aluminium export industries could risk closure.

Gold  USA inflation thought to be transitory.  Watch this week’s USA Fed meeting.. 

Platinum & Palladium  Pt & Pd markets expected to be undersupplied.

Oil  Rising confidence in the global economic recovery is helping to push oil prices higher. 

Coal  et coal prices (HCC & LVPCI) settled for Jun21Qtr. SSCC soon.  

*Iron Ore  Vales’ supply is again muted.  Confidence grows that China will ease back scrutiny of steel sector. 

Shipping  Asian freight rates were mixed in the latest week.  

General 

*Port Hedland – Iron ore shipping:  Reduced offtake by China is taken up by others. 

*Port of Singapore – shipping:  Total tonnes flat for the 12 mo to May, though are recovering.. 

Commodity Review 20211015 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20210604 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

USA – Japan

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April though June, the base months in 2020 were usually the lowest data base-readings during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels as a guide. 
    • This is reflected this week in USA and Japanese data.  In both sets recovery is under way from Covid-lows, but in most segments, recovery has yet to achieve pre-covid levels.
  • New technology funded in part by major Cu miners gives promise of ability to achieve higher recoveries from chalcopyrite ore than previously.  Success here will be important to forward copper supply.
  • Prices for Ni & Co will depend on supply and demand, the latter of which is somewhat dependent on availability and efficacy of substitute elements and technologies, depending on prices, and upon time-frames to commercialisation (which are usually longer than initial estimates).    

SUMMARY  

*Copper  New technology development for Cu extraction from low-grade Cu ores. 

*Cobalt  Status, outlook and drivers for cobalt to 2025. 

*Nickel  Ni prices forecast on a gradual long term uptrend, by Fitch & Bloomberg.

Zinc & Lead  NCZ improves Zn recoveries with Jameson Cell commissioning.   Pb TCs fell on tight supply.  

Tin  Malaysia Smelting Corp’s Sn output closed during current lockdowns, initially till mid-June. 

Aluminium  China’s Al output to increase till 2024, when recycled output is forecast to increase. 

Gold  Australia may challenge China’s position as #1 gold producer. 

Platinum & Palladium  Russian banks to fund Chernogorskoye Pt deposit in Serbia. 

*Oil  Higher prices forecast, though duration is uncertain.  OPEC holds the keys. 

*Coal  Japanese annual benchmark thermal settled up significantly.  Met coal prices improving.  

Iron Ore  Prices increased again, on strong steel production, & ore supply constraints. 

Shipping  Asian freight capacity eased & prices moderated compared to recent weeks.  

General 

*USA- Electricity End-Use:  Industrial demand dipped during Covid.  Will it recover?.  

*USA – Purchasing Managers’ Index:  Positive overall, though slowing from prior peaks.  

*USA – Construction Spending:  Private & Residential spending grew.  Public Non-Res declined. 

*Japan – Industrial Production:  Recovery is under way but yet to get back to pre-covid levels.