Shipping

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April though June, the base months in 2020 were usually the lowest data base-readings during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.  Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels as a guide. 
  • Pinch point graphs for base metals are now all getting tighter.
  • Shipping has been flat for 2020, largely due to the covid-19 pandemic, though it showing a return to growth.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Demand for copper is returning,  Supply is challenged locally.  

*Cobalt  A very material concern around long-term shortages for cobalt, from the early to mid-2020’s.  

*Nickel  Nickel has numerous supply/demand drivers.  Surplus in low grade, but tight supply of high quality.

Zinc & Lead  Dairi Zn-Pb mine in Indonesia, now Chinese owned, has a badly flawed tailings dam design.  

Tin  Extremely tight!  Prices are highest in a decade (which was a record).      

Aluminium  Australia’s multi-billion-dollar alumina and aluminium export industries could risk closure.

Gold  USA inflation thought to be transitory.  Watch this week’s USA Fed meeting.. 

Platinum & Palladium  Pt & Pd markets expected to be undersupplied.

Oil  Rising confidence in the global economic recovery is helping to push oil prices higher. 

Coal  et coal prices (HCC & LVPCI) settled for Jun21Qtr. SSCC soon.  

*Iron Ore  Vales’ supply is again muted.  Confidence grows that China will ease back scrutiny of steel sector. 

Shipping  Asian freight rates were mixed in the latest week.  

General 

*Port Hedland – Iron ore shipping:  Reduced offtake by China is taken up by others. 

*Port of Singapore – shipping:  Total tonnes flat for the 12 mo to May, though are recovering..