Of particular interest this week:

  • Illustration of a couple of simple growth models … China’s growth will likely be a blend of these.
  • Some signals (from China and Japan) that may indicate the thermal coal market is bottoming.
  • USA’s economy and China’s economy both reported data indicating recovering growth.
  • India’s exports increased.

SUMMARY

Copper  – Prices down on SHFE inventory increases.  May just be a relocation to a more secure spot.

Nickel  – Ni laterite inventories at Chinese ports continue to fall.

Zinc & Lead – USA reported strong auto sales for July.  Analysts remain bullish on outlook for zinc.

Tin  – Indonesia to tighten provisions in its bans on exports of tin materials.

Aluminium  – Increasing Chinese output of aluminium is likely to constrain price increases.

Gold  – India’s exports increased strongly but gold imports increased the trade deficit.

Platinum & Palladium  – South Africa’s National Salary Bill is to increase markedly due to the outcomes of the Pt strike.     .

Oil  – USA exported crude oil this week, against a 50-yr old ban on sales of oil abroad.

Coal – China seeking to “stabilise” thermal coal.  Japanese seeking spot cargoes.  Signals of a bottom?

Iron Ore – India becoming a significant iron ore importer.

Shipping – Risks of shipping Nickel (laterite) Ores.

General
China’s Industry & growth models.  Expansion of manufacturing in July signals a pickup in growth.

USA:  PMI, Construction Spending.  Strong PMI numbers for July.

Japan:  Industrial Production.  Slowed in June.