Of particular interest this week:

Base metals:  All prices up and most inventories down.

Oil:  US rigs still reducing though output not likely to fall till 2016.

Nickel:  deficit forecast to deepen.

USA:  encouraging data on existing home sales.

Aluminium:  Issues regarding recycling of cans.  Could be a crisis in two years.

Gold:  Support at USD 1,200.

SUMMARY

Copper  Expectations of Chinese stimulus is keeping prices in backwardation.

Nickel  Ni deficit forecast to deepen (despite inventories).

Zinc & Lead  Nyrstar is to reduce Zn production outlook.  New competition in non-nuclear submarines.

Tin  Not much new in the Sn market.  However prices are increasing and inventories falling.

Aluminium  Recycling – one can at a time.

Gold  MayDay holidays (in Asia) contributing to thin trading.

Platinum & Palladium  Some years yet to achieve a Pt deficit.

Oil  Rigs reducing in USA.  Production likely to increase until 2016.

Coal  Met-coal contracts: spot vs term.  Indians are moving to spot.  Chinese offtake of Indonesian thermal is down.

Iron Ore  BHP & Vale (temporary) slowing of output may trigger a rebound.

Shipping  Storms and iron ore movements help Cape & Panamax rates   .

General  

Base metals:  all prices increased and only Ni & Cu inventories increased.

USA – Existing Home Sales, PMI Index, Construction Spending.  Broadly the US economy looks in good shape.  Good data from Existing homes.

Japan – Industrial Production