Of particular interest this week:

China:  After the military parade on 3rd September, what will happen to the (temporary) closures made seeking blue skies in Beijing?

Australia: coal exports – continued export growth.

Aluminium:  China policy (and issues) on SOE mergers.

Base metals:  Prices up, with contangos and backwardations generally tightening.

Economics:  USA – encouraging growth.  Japan – down on one large key segment.  The rest are looking up.  Germany – looking healthy.

SUMMARY

Copper  Asarco to shut its Ray copper mine in Arizona.

Nickel  NPI producers switch to ferro-chrome in China.  China Ni market remains in surplus.

Zinc & Lead  Glencore on notice re- the Macarthur River Zn-Pb mine with potential for a ‘closure’ notice.

Tin  Second Indonesian tin export approval given.

Aluminium  China driving mergers of SOEs.

Gold  Gold price correlates with the Vix, rather than as a refuge from equities.  The correlation with equities described as a ‘coin-toss’.

Platinum & Palladium  Lonmin is promoting platinum as a “Reserve” currency.

Oil  Oil price increased.  It is a nervous world … notably aspects of Yemen, Africa, USA & China.

Coal  Glencore’s HCC offerings likely supportive for the next Qtr contract prices.

Iron Ore  Slow steel demand in China.  Chinese military parade on 3rd September.  What happens in Hebei province after that?

Shipping  Panamax ships positioning for the grain season.  Cape rates down.

General  

Australia – coal exports up in June.

USA – New Housing Starts

  • Orders to Durable Goods, Vehicles, and Computers & Electronics

Japan – Orders to Machinery (detailed by segment), down but encouraging.

Germany – Industrial production, Orders to Durable Goods & Construction – encouraging