Of particular interest this week:

Gold:  Supply growth is emerging from the non-major suppliers.

Contango & Backwardation in the base metals.

Volkswagen:  One door closes and … a platinum lining opens.

Oil:  positions made clearer.

SUMMARY

Copper  Slow demand growth experienced.  Reduced mine supply from a fragmented sector required.

Nickel  Calls for mine supply reductions – some under way.  Review under way in New Caledonia.

Zinc & Lead  Zinc narrative is a ‘slow-fuse affair’.  Century mine production ended.  The Pb-battery ‘kill’ season approaches.

Tin  Indonesian strategy appears to be kicking in, but will it benefit Indonesians?

Aluminium  Bauxite – China’s imports remain strong.

Gold  Gold tends not to leave India once it enters.  A new gold coin.

Platinum & Palladium  ‘Volkswagen effect’ reduces Pt demand for diesel engines, promotes fuel-cells that consume Pt.

Oil  Positions re-stated.  Low prices likely to remain for longer.  No quick rebound.

Coal  China to clamp down on illegal met-coal mining.  Thermal prices (USD) may reduce further.

Iron Ore  Record Pt Hedland shipments.  Ore prices to increase slowly, after 2016.

Shipping  Vale’s VLOC agreements with China pose an ongoing supply (boost) a further threat to iron ore.

General:   

Gold – mine-supply is widespread, and a small part of global inventory.

Base Metals- Contango and (Backwardation)  –  current trends.

USA – PMI  – points to a slower growth of its manufacturing sector.

USA – Construction Spending – showing strong growth.

Japan – Industrial Production – miniscule growth.