Of particular interest this week:
Supply disruptions : Cu, Ni, Sn, Coking Coal.
Gold: Heads you win and Tails you win. (if you are gold)
Oil: The saga continues. We continue to expect prices to progress to USD 50-60/bbl range in the mid term, propelled at very least (if not by politics) by lack of capital spending needed to sustain production.
Copper Recent signs that manufacturing and inflation in China and USA have turned a (+ve) corner.
Nickel Short term supply disruptions in New Caledonia.
Zinc & Lead Zn prices at 5 yr high. Glencore cutting more production. Teck buying Teena from RXL.
Tin Myanmar my struggle to sustain output.
Aluminium Portland (Vic) smelter outlook poor on loss of electricity subsidies.
Gold No matter who wins the US election, it will be bullish for the gold price.
Platinum & Palladium AMCU, one of South Africa’s more militant unions has agreed and not decided to strike.
Oil Venezuela/India, Brazil. Abu Dhabi hosting talks with heads of top oil companies.
Coal More Aust coking coal supply disruptions. Thermal spreads widening was market watches China.
Iron Ore Capital constraints becoming a challenge for new mine capacity investments.
Shipping Cape rates up on iron ore demand.
Freight Rates – Cape size rates showing demand-led recovery, not a big one, but clear.
USA – ISM – purchasing managers index – positive outlook, much better than 2015.