Of particular interest this week:

Supply disruptions :  Cu, Ni, Sn, Coking Coal. 

Gold:  Heads you win and Tails you win. (if you are gold) 

Oil:   The saga continues.  We continue to expect prices to progress to USD 50-60/bbl  range in the mid term, propelled at very least (if not by politics) by lack of capital spending needed to sustain production. 

SUMMARY  

Copper  Recent signs that manufacturing and inflation in China and USA have turned a (+ve) corner. 

Nickel  Short term supply disruptions in New Caledonia.  

Zinc & Lead  Zn prices at 5 yr high.  Glencore cutting more production.  Teck buying Teena from RXL. 

Tin  Myanmar my struggle to sustain output. 

Aluminium  Portland (Vic) smelter outlook poor on loss of electricity subsidies. 

Gold  No matter who wins the US election, it will be bullish for the gold price.  

Platinum & Palladium  AMCU, one of South Africa’s more militant unions has agreed and not decided to strike. 

Oil  Venezuela/India, Brazil.  Abu Dhabi hosting talks with heads of top oil companies.  

Coal  More Aust coking coal supply disruptions.  Thermal spreads widening was market watches China.

Iron Ore  Capital constraints becoming a challenge for new mine capacity investments. 

Shipping  Cape rates up on iron ore demand. 

General 

Freight Rates – Cape size rates showing demand-led recovery, not a big one, but clear.

USA – ISM – purchasing managers index – positive outlook, much better than 2015.