Of particular note this week:
Copper: Labour contracts 2/28 reached agreement to date
Nickel: Roskills outlook.
Oil: Additional oil production is a much greater threat than equity market conniptions.
Germany – IP– robust outlook
Japan – strong industrial production.
SUMMARY Mkt moves appear driven more by sentiment (fears), than by economic fundamentals this week.
Copper Codelco and Lomas Bayas agreed to labour contracts. Still 28x remain to be agreed.
Nickel Roskill’s outlook for Nickel.
Zinc & Lead Zn smelters expected to reduce TCs. TKM to buy Kroussau Zn-Pb project in Gabon, from BAT.
Tin Solder is the most important application for Sn. Outlook is sound.
Aluminium Alba is expanding Al capacity. Al is expected to account for 16% of Bahrain’s GDP.
Gold Physical demand for Au picking up for Chinese NY and Indian wedding season.
Platinum & Palladium Norilsk Nickel and Russian Platinum joining to become a major global influence in Pt-Pd.
Oil Further non-OPEC production growth is considered a bigger threat to oil than current equity mkts.
Coal Price tension from threat of the looming Aust cyclone season .
Iron Ore China re-stocking for post-‘winter cuts’, and need for higher quality feddstock.
Shipping Drop in demand on approach to Lunar New Year.
Port Hedland – Iron ore shipments:
Pinch-point graphs – Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, Al, Sn: overall trend is tight but weakened a little this wk.
Baker Hughes – Rig Count: World up +86 rigs in Jan. Nth American Rigs up +32 in Feb so far.
Germany – Industrial Production, Durable Goods, Orders to Industry: All strong.
Japan – LNG Prices: Up on January Brent pricing (which softened into February).