The escalating trade conflict between USA and China has unnerved base metal markets this week on the uncertainty of outcomes. We note potential and outcomes in this issue according to the perceived strategic motives and goals of the major participants.
However most economic parameters we can see to date (see this and recent Commodity Reviews) remain sound, and we expect fundamentals will ultimately win out over sentiment. 20180706
*Copper Still 12x labour contracts to be negotiated in 2018, many in Chile.
*Cobalt India is actively seeking to source battery minerals Li, Co et al. COB & CLQ comments.
Nickel CLQ comment. **Escalating trade conflict between USA & China. What are the likely outcomes.
Zinc & Lead China’s Zn & Pb goals complicated due to co-production of Zn & Pb. MYL, NCZ comment.
Tin Interest in Cornish tin revived, in part due to associated Li brines.
Aluminium China has issues with shutdown declarations and practise.
Gold EXU outlining shallow mineralisation near Tampia.
Platinum & Palladium US-European trade issues are impacting auto imports into USA.
*Oil Russia has boosted crude production rates.
*Coal JFY2018-19 thermal contract settlement is unsettled (Glencore/Tohoku) though others may deal.
Iron Ore Capesize demand is up on iron ore, while Panamax is reduced..
Shipping Capesize demand up for iron ore, though Panamax down this week.
Pinch Point updates: Ni is tightening. Pb, Al & Zn, then Cu, are fundamentally tighter
*USA – PMI: US economic outlook is strong.
*China- Industrial & Energy Output: +ve growth in electricity and other select segments.
*USA – Construction Spending: positive growth Residential, Non-Res, Public, Private
*Japan – Orders to Machinery: robust growth.