SUMMARY  

*Copper  Cu price weakness has not been driven by fundamentals, rather by recent macroeconomic fears.

*Cobalt  Off-take parties asking for maximum volumes despite current quiet conditions.

*Nickel  Short term mkt pain but mid-long- term bullish on looming deficits.

*Zinc & *Lead  Zn market in transition to a (finely) balanced state. RVR, NCZ.  Revolutionary Pb filter.

Tin  Production slowing.  Demand outlook growing.

Aluminium  2018 an unusually volatile year, laden with political risk/interference.

Gold  Central bank holdings declined toward 2008 and have been increasing since 2009.

Platinum & Palladium  South Africa’s large Waterberg pgm project makes (regulatory) progress.

*Oil  In the face of outlook for plentiful oil supply, outlook for >USD 100/bbl is fanciful.

*Coal  Expected China-import surge for HCC ahead of winter restrictions, overestimated, so far.

*Iron Ore  Iron ore imports to China ignore fears of an economic slowdown.  Fears may be unfounded?

Shipping  Capesize rates down, Panamax up, this week.

General 

*Port Hedland Iron Ore:  steady export rates, remaining high, and China dominant.

*Pinchpoint updates:  Regardless of sentiment, rhetoric and stock mkts, tightening continues.

*Baker Hughes – Rig Counts:  # Rigs increased after oil price rise.  USD 100/bbl target is fanciful.

Japan – LNG Prices:  LNG prices may be stabilising as oil prices soften slightly