Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- Base metal inventories remain tight, though some prices are just starting to reflect fundamental positions. Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption.
- Trade & geopolitical tensions abound! Uncertainties generated by geopolitical activities continue to hinder normal trading conditions.
- SUMMARY
- Copper Tit-for-tat tariff imposition continues between USA & China.
- Cobalt Development of responsible sourcing of raw materials continues to be developed. Price stabilising.
- *Nickel Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to double output of battery cathode materials. Ni contango at zero this week!.
- *Zinc & Lead NCZ, IBG, HRR – emerging production. ILZSG forecasts Zn deficit in 2019, but surplus for Pb.
- Tin ANW – near final approvals for Taronga tin.
- *Aluminium Xinfa closure of major alumina refinery increases supply tension for aluminium.
- *Gold USA consumer sentiment highest for 15 yrs. … but buying conditions reduced.
- Platinum & Palladium Pt 3-yr wage negotiations will test South African system.
- Oil Geopolitical uncertainty has not been seen at these (high) levels for years.
- *Coal Tight met-coal supply is over-riding tepid demand. “… tight supply is all about Australia”.
- *Iron Ore Unexpected strong demand for steel in China increases iron ore prices amid supply tensions.
- Singapore Shipping Cape-size supported by iron ore. Panamax supported by grains.
- General
- South American Exchange rate trends – CLP, PEN, BRL, ARS: ARS & BRL particularly weak.
- Singapore – shipping traffic: Slow oil & bulks, though growth in containers.
- USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation: IP slowed sharply
- USA Housing Starts: continue to slow.
- Japan – LNG Prices: reduced on an unusually warm winter. .