USA Yields and Coal Trade
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- USA Interest rate yields have been inverted for four weeks now. However it is markedly longer terms of inversion that normally precede a recession.
- Trade wars: the key protagonists both lose and other bystanders gain!
- Base metal inventories remain tight. Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs. Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption. More commentary is recognising this condition.
- Coal trade (seaborne) has evolved markedly over the past two decades, notably post GFC. China changed from an exporter to an importer. Coking Coal remains a global market, while thermal coal became even more regional. New suppliers are emerging. Demand growth is dominated by emerging markets.
*Copper Trade war impacts. Cu supply down but so is demand.
*Cobalt DRC very dependent upon, and wants to diversify away from, Co and other resources.
*Nickel Sulawesi flooding impacting Ni supply.
Zinc & Lead Zn : Woodlawn (HRR) ramping up. Pb: Port Pirie smelter outage is impacting market.
Tin Malaysia Smelting Corp ‘said’ to be delaying shipments to customers. – concentrate shortages.
Aluminium The Portland Al smelters’ future is in doubt. Electricity prices are to high for it.
Gold Gold prices increasing on mounting economic (and geopolitical) concerns.
Platinum & Palladium AMCU threatens strike action in South Africa..
*Oil USA gasoline demand out-grown by petrochemicals.
*Coal June19Qtr HCC & SSCC contract price settlements.
Iron Ore Current prices forecast to hold through September Qtr(at least).
Shipping Capesize rates up, though Panamax rates down.
*USA – Yields: USA yield curve inverted, for the past four weeks.
*Trade Wars – Who benefits: Not USA nor China, but others do.
*Coal Trade – Evolving patterns of exports and imports.
USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation: IP OK. Cap.Utiln. is sub-optimal.