Rig Counts, PMI, Au price correlations
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- Base metal inventories remain tight. Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs. Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption. More media commentary is recognising this condition. However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals.
- Trade war announcements regarding re-entering negotiations (e.g. China-USA, North Korea-USA, Iran-USA) are likely to result in protracted negotiations, as parties currently remain distant on terms. These could be drawn out till say mid-2020 … though that is perhaps a little transparent.
Copper Price down on strong USD and markets seeking a firm deal between USA & China.
*Cobalt Chinese CoSO4 demand (EVs & smartphones) has declined since early 2018..
*Nickel China’s Ni ore stocks falling. Liquefaction risks of shipping Ni laterite ores. Plant cost blow-outs.
*Zinc & Lead Zn & Pb both in deficit. Chinese refined Zn output up.
*Tin China to lift ban on foreign investment in Mo, Sn, Sb & F, but not W nor REE.
Aluminium ABX advances its projects on refining bauxite ore to aluminium fluorides.
Gold India to increase gold import taxes. Au price down on strong USD and good USA jobs data.
Platinum & Palladium Norilsk better placed with Pd than South Africa with Pt.
*Oil Brent oil is in a slim backwardation. OPEC rolled over its 1.2 mmbbl/day cuts.
*Coal LVPCI and SSCCC contract price agreements for the Sept19Qtr.
Iron Ore Iron ore supply crunch may be starting to ease, though is still a fair way from ‘balance’.
Shipping Cape and Panamax rates increased.
*Gold price correlations: what correlation?
*USA PMI: Still slowing though PMI remains positive.
*Baker Hughes Rig Counts: Fewer USA rigs though increased output matches OPEC reductions.