Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • General    USA’s economy still continues toward slower growth, particularly by private and residential construction spending compared with public and non-residential spending, and by expectations of a USA rate cut by FOMC this next week.  Hope has again risen for a positive (actual) outcome from renewed USA-China tariff talks, which has blunted gold prices
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.   In a broad sense not much has changed.  Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs.   Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption.  However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals.   Nickel price is reacting strongly to threats of supply restrictions.  

SUMMARY  

Copper  Price jumped on news of a new USA-China tariff discussion

Cobalt  A forecast slowdown of EV adoption (sales) … is likely still too high for mine-supply growth ability.

Nickel  China exploring Ni-free Li-ion battery technology.  EV segment is a small part of Ni demand.  POS.

Zinc & Lead  Output of Pb & Zn from Mexican miners slumped in JunHY … may improve in Dec HY.

Tin  Two major Sn producers cutting output but a third is planning to keep output steady.

Aluminium  Henan province’s Al product output is cut for the duration of the Chinese Ethnic Games.

Gold  Au prices weaker on expectations of tariff talk progress, and USA FOMC rate cuts.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd price up to record levels on tight supply.  NHC

Oil  OPEC is not comfortable.  No control / influence over a significant supply segment (USA).

Coal  USA coal exports to continue to suffer on poor Atlantic region demand.

Iron Ore  Outlook for a slow slide in Fe ore prices as Chinese growth eases … assumes no supply response.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax rates reduced this week.

General 

Japan – LNG prices:  a recovery from last month’s 3 yr lows.

Port Hedland – Iron ore exports:  Big monthly yoy jump but flat 12mo period yoy.

USA – Construction Spending:  Continuing -ve residential & private growth.