Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- General USA’s economy still continues toward slower growth, particularly by private and residential construction spending compared with public and non-residential spending, and by expectations of a USA rate cut by FOMC this next week. Hope has again risen for a positive (actual) outcome from renewed USA-China tariff talks, which has blunted gold prices
- Base metal inventories continue to remain tight. In a broad sense not much has changed. Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs. Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption. However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals. Nickel price is reacting strongly to threats of supply restrictions.
Copper Price jumped on news of a new USA-China tariff discussion
Cobalt A forecast slowdown of EV adoption (sales) … is likely still too high for mine-supply growth ability.
Nickel China exploring Ni-free Li-ion battery technology. EV segment is a small part of Ni demand. POS.
Zinc & Lead Output of Pb & Zn from Mexican miners slumped in JunHY … may improve in Dec HY.
Tin Two major Sn producers cutting output but a third is planning to keep output steady.
Aluminium Henan province’s Al product output is cut for the duration of the Chinese Ethnic Games.
Gold Au prices weaker on expectations of tariff talk progress, and USA FOMC rate cuts.
Platinum & Palladium Pd price up to record levels on tight supply. NHC
Oil OPEC is not comfortable. No control / influence over a significant supply segment (USA).
Coal USA coal exports to continue to suffer on poor Atlantic region demand.
Iron Ore Outlook for a slow slide in Fe ore prices as Chinese growth eases … assumes no supply response.
Shipping Cape & Panamax rates reduced this week.
Japan – LNG prices: a recovery from last month’s 3 yr lows.
Port Hedland – Iron ore exports: Big monthly yoy jump but flat 12mo period yoy.
USA – Construction Spending: Continuing -ve residential & private growth.