Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • OPEC+ participants are girding their loins for potentially more production cut commitments.
  • The USA – China tariff talks & trade wars continue to stunt trade oriented decisions.  Some unexpected consequences (see tin).
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  In a broad sense not much has changed.  Base metal prices are struggling to cope with the negative fears driven largely by the USA-China trade tensions.  Low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously. 

 SUMMARY  

*Copper  Trade wars continue to deter activity.  Outlook for future supply remains tight.

Cobalt  Co inventory from the previously failed Fanya Metal Exchange to be auctioned on Oct 5th.

*Nickel  Ni prices responding to low refined Ni stocks and looming ban on ore exports.

*Zinc & Lead  Northern Canadian infrastructure proposed to deliver remote new mine production.   IBG Citronen.

*Tin  A bad vegetable harvest stings tariff affected USA steel makers.

Aluminium  Vietnam imposes anti-dumping tariffs on Chinee products.

*Gold  “Global policy uncertainty is at an all-time high”.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd prices have run to record highs, on demand growth and supply deficit.

*Oil  Nigeria prepared to make cuts to meet its OPEC+ commitments.

Coal  Chinese buying of low price met coal imports continues.

*Iron Ore  India to auction mining leases.  May disrupt local supply and require imports to balance demand.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax rates reduced this week, on easier grain & iron ore demand.

General 

*Port of Singapore Shipping Traffic:  Bulk Carriers & Tankers +ve growth.

*USA – Construction Spending:  public non-residential spending +ve, but private residential is -ve.

*USA – PMI:  Still indicating a contracting manufacturing economy.

*Japan – Industrial Production:  Overall modest contraction in IP.