China

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • China – Industry & Energy output for September was notably widely positive.
  • Singapore shipping traffic is also positive for September …
  • Still …  USA – China tariff talks & trade wars continue to stunt trade oriented decisions.
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  In a broad sense not much has changed.  Base metal prices are struggling to cope with the negative fears driven largely by the USA-China trade tensions.   However low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously. 
  • USA data for house starts, and IP remain low.  These are concerning.
  • USA yield curves:  … have technically reverted to ‘normal’. 

 SUMMARY  

*Copper  Positive Chinese property and infrastructure growth data improved outlook.

Cobalt  Glencore contract with GEM, & Trafigura financing Mutoshi mine in DRC.  Confident of outlook.

Nickel  Bit of a roller coaster between supply fears and outlook subject to growth rates.

Zinc & Lead  Zn TC/RCs expected to stay high.  South Korea is the third largest producer of refined lead.

Tin  Sn use contracting in 2019.  Changing tariffs are disrupting supply chains.

Aluminium  Energy intensive industry in eastern Australia is subject to commercial reviews.

Gold  Prospect of a Brexit deal is muting Au & Ag price reactions.  (UK votes Sat 19th).  Geopolitics fears are rife.

Platinum & Palladium  Pt surplus ahead, and a Pd deficit .

Oil  Asia-Pacific deficit of refined oils by 2025, while region excluding China likely to face surplus.

Coal  China unlikely to escalate import controls, on fears of a harsh winter & need for economic growth.

Iron Ore  RIO maintains guidance, taking #1 now ranked iron ore producer, pending Vale ramp-up.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax rates reduced.

General 

*Singapore Ship Traffic:  positive growth in each major segment:  bulks, tankers & containers.

Baker Hughes – World & American Rig Counts:

*China – Industrial & Energy Output:  widespread +ve growth incl electricity, but not vehicles.

USA Industrial Production – Capacity Utilisation:  IP growth is flat.

USA – Housing Starts:  low total growth.  Only +ve in the South.