USA

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Still …  USA – Construction Spend – Private residential and Private spend are still negative growth. 
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  In a broad sense not much has changed.  However low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously, and price responses in some commodities beginning to be seen through sentiment. 
  • China is doubtful about the resilience of any trade deal that may be signed with the USA under the Trump Administration. 

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Short-Mid-long-term prospects are bright, though global sentiment is hampering industry.

*Cobalt  Co supply remains robust, mainly as a by-or co-product, for now.

*Nickel  Indonesia’s immediate ore export is temporary (1-2 wks).  The main ban is enforced Jan 2020.

Zinc & Lead  ILZSG forecasts – Zn demand down 2020, up again 2021.  Pb surplus 2019 & 2020..

Tin  Roskill’s Sn outlook.  Demand forecast to increase markedly with Li-ion batteries.

Aluminium  Al to replace plastics in numerous applications.

*Gold  Au prices re – touched USD 1,500 on uncertainty(s), particularly on Trump & trade deals.

Platinum & Palladium  South African Pt wage talks have more confusion than clarity (including murder).

Oil  USA rig count has fallen but USA production has increased.

Coal  Japanese annual Sept thermal reference price contract might not settle.

Iron Ore  Citi outlook:  Fe ore prices to reduce in 2020.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax prices increased last week.

General 

USA – Electricity End-Use:  flat growth trends

USA- PMI:  below 50, though up on the prior month.

USA – Construction Spending:  Fractionally positive growth after 5 weeks of -ve growth.

Japan Industrial Production:  Fractionally -ve growth.  Computers & Buses are up.