Germany  UK

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Sentiment drivers still outweigh fundamentals for base metal pricing, but progressively by less and less.

 Indonesia – trying to drive added value in Ni and Al in-country;  runs some risks. 

  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  In a broad sense not much has changed.  However low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously, and price responses in some commodities beginning to be seen through sentiment. 
  • Last week China said it is doubtful about the resilience of any trade deal that may be signed with the USA under the Trump Administration.   So far they are spot on!  USA-China trade agreement – like parking on opposite sides of a street on alternate days. 

SUMMARY  

*Copper  USA-China trade deal, reported agreed, then ‘but Trump not reducing tariffs.  .

*Cobalt  Global cobalt mine-output will increase at a slower rate in 2019 than in 2018.

*Nickel  Indonesia relaxed temp-export ban.  Full time ore-export ban to be from Jan 2020.

*Zinc & Lead  WRM SFR JV – Red Mountain -high grade Zn intercepts.  Pb-Zn mkts tight but surpluses forecast

Tin  Sn underperforming.  China flipped from being a net importer of refined tin to exporter in Sept.

Aluminium  Indonesia imposing ‘safeguard’ tariffs on Al foil to protect domestic producers.

*Gold  Volatility and uncertainty are alive and well.

Platinum & Palladium  AMCU may conclude a labour wage deal with major SA Pt miners.

Oil  OPEC’s crude oil production is up.  China’s crude oil imports at record highs.  .

Coal  China began import controls on Mongolian imports.  Vietnam’s coal production increasing.

Iron Ore  Chinese iron ore prices reduced as cold winter reduces construction in the north.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax size rates down this week.

General 

*Germany – Industrial production et al:  IP down but Durable Goods up.

*United Kingdom – Industrial Production et al: Generally down for most sectors.