China

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

When hearing or reading of forecasts of supply or deficits, always consider which side of the story the writer is from (supply or demand), or is the author an impartial analyst or group.  It often helps frame the comments.  

  • A number of signs are appearing that suggest the commodity markets may perform within the next 12 months  …pls  read the comments on copper, cobalt, iron ore, oil.
  • Notably CRU comments that a surge for commodities by growth in EV production has not started  … yet.  CRU suggests 2020-21, though depending on how fast (slow) the uptake is, it may be 2021-22.  This will have meaningful impact on the usual suite of EV commodities, though notably Ni, Co, REE & Li.   

SUMMARY  

*Copper  The Cu concentrate market is tight and will tighten further next year.

*Cobalt  The age of the electric vehicle is about to dawn, soon, but not quite yet.

Nickel  MCR set to revive its Ni production in the Kambalda region.

Zinc & Lead  Glencore’s Brunswick Zn-Pb smelter to close.  Sichuan to licence Pb-acid battery collectors.

Tin  ITA published a new assessment criteria for due diligence in the Sn supply chain.

*Aluminium  Moves to reduce plastic packaging is starting to increase demand for aluminium packaging.

Gold  Gold price driven by (USA-China trade deal, USA Fed, USA manufacturing data, & Trump..

*Platinum & Palladium  South African miners face a conundrum: the risks of increasing palladium and rhodium output.

*Oil  OPEC geopolitical turmoil puts supply at risk.  .OPEC+ to extend supply cuts on slow growth.

Coal  Met coal movement into China may be less restricted in 2020.

*Iron Ore  Major miners say they are unable to cover a looming supply deficit (partly due to Vale).

Shipping  Shipping rates edged upward this week on strength in grains and iron ore.

General 

USA – Yield Curves:  From ‘inverted’ to effectively back to ‘normal’.

*China – Industrial & Energy Output:  electricity & gas show strong growth, + some other.

*USA Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation:  Feeble growth.

*USA Housing Starts. Strong growth, notably in the South & West.