World Steel

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Base metals are starting to show some price recovery though some of Covid-19’s effected supply-shock continues.  
    • Demand is improving.  
    • Stocks are falling again.
  • World Steel sees China performing a credible recovery, though the rest of the world’s output is still Covid-19-struck.  
  • USA Durable Goods and Vehicles orders really collapsed in April. 
  • USA oil-shale rig counts have reduced dramatically. 
    • The rapid production decline profiles of the oil-shale holes means USA’s oil output will really shrink soon! 
  • Gold prices have reduced modestly.  The potential for economies to open up again may be diverting capital from gold.  Though there may well be volatility in the near future.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Chile’s Cu industry, so far, only has a small output reduction.  

*Cobalt  DRC Co supply issues, artisanal miners & class actions. 

Nickel  Ni demand outlook down, though Chinese demand has only a small decline.

*Zinc & *Lead  Unreported Zn stocks building up.  Mining industry to adapt post Covid-19.  

Tin  Supply deficit with a huge backwardation. 

Aluminium  Tasmania to host ABX’s aluminium fluoride process.

*Gold  Banks have issues with Central Bank of Venezuela and a terminated large gold deal. 

Platinum & Palladium  Deficit in Pt Pd likely in 2020, though may revert later.

*Oil  USA shale-oil industry’s production outlook hurt by record drop in rig numbers. 

Coal  Chinese industry calling for relaxation of import restrictions / delays for met coal. 

*Iron Ore  Prices surged on Brazilian supply issues.  Industrial operations in China resumed.

Shipping  Cape rates up (iron ore) and Panamax rates (coal & clinker) flat this week. 

General 

*World Steel:  Chinese output is recovering credibly, though rest-of-world is down heavily.

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts – North America:  Oil & Gas rig numbers down, heavily. 

*USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Computers & Electronic Goods:  Orders down heavily.