Singapore Shipping – USA (House Starts)

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Base metals’ pinch-point graphs continue to show metal prices rising, in response to expectations of (stimulus driven) increased demand, and recognition of tight supply.   Copper price about to break upward, on the pinchpoint graphs, as industry restarts post-Covid-19 in several areas. 
  • Iron ore demand remains firm with China’s surging steel output.
  • Singapore shipping shows bulk commodity demand and tanker traffic is strong, reflecting Asian industrial & economic activity.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Supply side issues less than expected.  Price expected to hold above USD 6,000/t through 2020.

*Cobalt   Supply chain is facing challenges. Prices and inventories beginning to move.

Nickel  Philippines’ miners do not expect further major mine disruptions this year.  Ore supply is tightening.

Zinc & Lead  Zn’s performance appears due to supply-side issues.  Price anticipated to be static.  

Tin  Tin supply has taken some heavy knocks from COVID-19-related lockdowns.     

Aluminium  Trump’s aluminium pillar of the “America First” policy is wobbling.

*Gold  Gold’s market fall described as an “over-priced market”, “cleaning itself out”.  “No fear present now”.

Platinum & Palladium  Auto markets including diesel heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV), starting to support Pt outlook

Oil  There are five major factors that usually go into a report on a major oil spill.   

Coal  Major Chinese domestic HCC miner slashing prices to compete with imports. 

*Iron Ore  Chinese demand strong and well managed supply from Australia & Brazil maintained prices. 

Shipping  Cape rates down, Panamax rates rose, Supramax rates up. 

General 

*Port Hedland – Iron ore exports:  Demand from China reduced, but remains strong. 

Germany – Industrial Production:  Negative growth, but improving on the prior 2-3 months.

United Kingdom – Industrial Production:  Negative growth, but improving on the prior 2-3 months. 

USA – Industrial Production – Capacity Utilisation:  -ve growth but improving.  Low utilisation.

*USA – Yields:  Bond market does not appear to expect recovery for three years.