Coronavirus- USA / China
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- had a strong negative impact on China’s industry and energy output for January-February.
- also influenced numerous investment decisions in various commodities.
- Charts of China’s infection rates show the recent decline to almost zero, while the rest of the world’s infection rates escalate strongly.
- China’s industry is ramping back up while working through relaxation of coronavirus restrictions.
- Saudi Arabia has taken control of the global oil output and pricing, with implications for USA’s price sensitive shale drillers.
- Gold price fell amid the panic, seemingly in a flight to USD as a ‘safe-haven. Though the sudden strength of the USD meant that price increased for in several other country currencies.
*Copper 14% of Cu miners are operating at losses at current (unsustainable) prices.
*Cobalt Expect less Co in batteries, but Co demand is still forecast to end up with shortfalls.
Nickel Nornickel forecasts higher Ni surplus, due in part to coronavirus impacts.
*Zinc & *Lead Lundin Mining idles its Neves Corvo expansion project. MYL progresses with Bawdwin Pb deposit.
*Tin Alphamin exercised an option to defer debt payments while developing Bisie, due to coronavirus.
Aluminium Collapse of auto production, a core Al consumer, needs a smelter response of reduced Al output. .
*Gold Price down in USD but up in others. BoA analysts forecast >USD 1,600/oz avg for 2020.
Platinum & Palladium Nornickel revised Pt outlook for a higher surplus. Pd to record a smaller deficit.
*Oil Saudi Arabia takes control and executes a market changer. Very low cost production.
Coal European car manufacture closures crimp demand for USA HCC in particular. Qld COVID-19 case.
Iron Ore Chinese steel consumption has started to lift meaningfully post COVID-19.
Shipping Freight rates dropped. Demand for Capes picked up.
Port of Singapore: Shipping traffic for Asia recorded notably positive growth.
*Coronavirus: China vs Rest-of-World. Country testing #s. Aust infections by age group.
USA – Treasury Yields: Sharp drop. Normal curves, with short end close to 0.0.
USA – New Housing Starts: Strong positive growth. May have resumed leading IP.
USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation: recovered to 0.0% growth.
*China – Industrial & Energy output: Strong -ve growth for most output segments for Jan-Feb.