Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
The world’s equity and commodity markets appear to collectively be taking a deep breath. Conncerns ahead include:
- The USA election, which many are now believing Biden’s lead is large enough to provide a victory”
- The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election.
- Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbent(s).
- The constitution does not actually set an election date though historically that has been consistent. It does specify that the President-elect will be inaugurated on January 20th.
- In the mean time the (“lame duck”) president remains in his post. That is of some concern to Democrats, and the markets, if as is thought, Biden wins.
- Growing Covid-19 infection numbers (and deaths) in USA, Europe, India and South America (Brazil). ,
- The markets widely reacted positively to the renewed prospect of support for a USA recovery, following Trump’s switch to support a stimulus package.
- In reality a USA recovery will take a while.
- Gold price fell somewhat this week, in part we believe due to some optimism for recovery stimuli being promoted, and partly a stronger USD (this week).
- There are no notable reductions in geopolitical risk, nor any (major) escalations.
- UAE & Bahrain appear to be achieving benefits of a local outbreak of peace.
- Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a cease fire.
- Yemen’s warring sides have completed a mass prisoner swap.
- Fundamentals for several commodities remain strong. … with the market largely waiting for a long heralded demand pickup.
*Copper Copper has been used in medicine for about 5,000 years. It works.
Cobalt PM1 plans to build a battery metals refinery in north Qld.
Nickel Glencore is close to a Ni offtake deal with Tesla. Indonesia expects a boom in Ni processing.
Zinc & Lead Zn: TC’s falling on tighter concentrate supply. Pb: NQ minerals’ Hellyer is going well.
Tin AVZ will boost its equity stake in the Manono Li-Sn project in DRC.
Aluminium The aluminium market has faced the recent macro turbulence with some resilience.
*Gold *Gold and USA equities are addicted to the stimulus package.
Platinum & Palladium CLQ is launching a deep drilling program to test a dunite below the main laterite Resource.
*Oil *Governments need to control the pandemic or the oil sector could face further demand destruction.
Coal *China’s coal imports fell to the lowest levels since last December.
Iron Ore *China’s production of steel is unlikely to be dented much this winter.
Shipping Freight price surge in September was short lived. Cape rates down, but Panamax rates rose.
*Port of Singapore – Shipping: As an indicator for Asian economic activity, Sept data is mixed.
*USA – Industrial Production – Capacity Utilisation: Very little good news here.