World Steel – China: Industry & Energy
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
The world’s equity and commodity markets appear to collectively be taking long and deep breaths.
Concerns ahead include:
- The USA election, for which many are now believing Biden’s lead is large enough to provide a victory”
- The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election.
- Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbent(s).
- The constitution does not actually set an election date though historically that has been consistent. It does specify that the President-elect will be inaugurated on January 20th.
- In the mean time the (“lame duck”) president remains in his post.
- That is of some concern to Democrats, and the markets, if as is thought, Biden wins.
- Covid-19 infection numbers (and deaths) continue to grow in USA, Europe, India and South America (Brazil). ,
- The markets widely reacted positively to the renewed prospect of support for a USA recovery, following Trump’s switch to support a stimulus package.
- In reality a USA recovery will take a while.
- Gold price is awaiting some clearer direction: We believe there is some optimism for recovery stimuli being promoted, and partly a stronger USD (this week).
- There are no notable reductions in geopolitical risk, nor any (major) escalations, though several outbreaks of peace are being attempted: .
- UAE & Bahrain appear to be achieving benefits of mutual agreements.
- Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a cease fire.
- Yemen’s warring sides have completed a mass prisoner swap.
- At this week’s LME Week, Copper stood out as the most attractive base metal, displacing nickel which held that position for the past two years.
- Fundamentals for most base metals remain strong. … with the market largely waiting for a long heralded demand pickup.
- Oil markets are struggling at low prices, driven by broadly lower demand.
- A leading Arabian analyst says that Saudi Arabia will only be able to deliver a balanced budget in 2023 as economy recovers from impact of coronavirus and low oil prices.
- Industrially China (and parts of Asia) are recovering, while recovery in the rest of the world is a struggle.