USA

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

The world’s equity and commodity markets appear to be widely comfortable with the USA election outcome of a President-elect Joe Biden:

  • Some concerns regarding the USA election outcome are:
    • Markets contemplating a period of little change (Democrat President & Congress, but a Republican Senate), meaning no radical changes expected.
    • However Trump will still be an influence (legacy) on the Republican Party.
  • Covid-19 infection numbers (and deaths) continue to grow in USA, Europe, India and South America (Brazil). 
    • Covid-19 limitations are impacting oil prices
  • Gold price outlook remains replete with potential catalysts.   
  • Base metals continue to jostle for recognition of market conditions, but the world markets have been distracted by more noisy and volatile activities.
    • Fundamentals for most base metals remain strong.  
    • Cu appears to be the considered leading base metal, followed by Ni then Zn.  Each market is actually tight.  
  • Oil markets are struggling at low prices, driven by broadly lower demand. 
  • Coal markets are still uncertain regarding China’s (unofficial) restrictions on Australian exports.
  • Industrially China (and parts of Asia) are recovering, while recovery in the rest of the world is a struggle.

SUMMARY  

Copper  Cu prices responding to strong Chinese demand and South American supply disruptions. 

Cobalt  Roskills forecasts steady demand growth for CO to 2030.    

Nickel  .Ni price up on near term supply/demand.   Mid term supply growth is expected to soften outlook.

Zinc & Lead  RVR is mining higher grade polymetallic ore.   IBG is progressing bank financing for Citronen.  

Tin  AfriTin continue to ramp up Uis Sn mine in Namibia.       

Aluminium  ABX progressing Binjour toward production of metallurgical grade bauxite in Qld.

Gold  USA election has a new President-elect (Joe Biden).  However control of covid-19 is also required. 

Platinum & Palladium  Pt demand forecast down in 2020, however growth is then expected out to 2024. 

Oil  Covid travel restrictions are impacting oil prices.  OPEC considering extending production cuts.

Coal  Very little clarity yet with regard to Chinese restrictions on imports from Australia. 

Iron Ore  Seaborne iron ore prices expected to decrease in Dec20Qtr. 

Shipping  Asian freight rates reduced last week on slowing steel activity, and seasonal weaker winter buying.

General 

USA – Electricity End Use:  Industrial usage normally falls at mkt ‘crashes’, and recovers poorly.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Rig counts recovering tentatively with increases in oil price (from lows).

USA – PMI:  OMI firmed upward (in most segments) suggesting a stronger outlook.

USA Construction Spending:  Again, positive growth only for private & residential  spending.

Japan – LNG Prices:  prices recovered slightly.