Singapore

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

The world’s equity and commodity markets appear to be widely comfortable with the USA election outcome of a President-elect Joe Biden:

  • More Republicans are moving support toward an orderly transfer of power.  So far Trump shows no sign of doing that.  
    • USA needs to make sure the ‘lame-duck’ does not cripple something else.
  • Covid-19 infection numbers (and deaths) continue to grow in USA, Europe, India and South America (Brazil).   Several commodity outlooks cite ‘recovery’ though there is still a likelihood that Covid-19 will dampen forecasts. 
  • Gold price outlook remains replete with potential catalysts.  Goldman Sachs retains its bullish outlook.
  • Base metals’ prices lifted markedly upon reducing exchange stocks and expectations of improving outlook via stimuli.
    • However it is unlikely that Covid-19 influence has finished yet, variably impacting both demand and supply.
  • Oil market is watching the looming OPEC+ meeting for 30Nov-01Dec.
  • Coal markets continue to have sub-optimal trade patterns due to China’s (unofficial) restrictions on Australian exports.  
  • Industrially China (and parts of Asia) are recovering, while recovery in the rest of the world is a struggle.
    • Singapore shipping growth has slowed markedly, reflecting slower pace of Asian trade growth, mostly due to COvid-19 disruptions.
    • China’s demand for steel and copper has surged. 

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Stronger than expected demand from China has driven a price surge, supported by fundamentals.  

Cobalt  Volkswagen joined the DRC Cobalt for Development Initiative.  

Nickel  USGS summary of nickel markets.

*Zinc & *Lead  Zn emerges as a surprising star performer, on supply issues.  These are not GFC conditions.

*Tin  Demand for ‘critical metals’ is skyrocketing to meet renewable-energy goals.  Supply issues.  

Aluminium  The future of Victoria’s struggling Portland aluminium smelter should be known soon.

*Gold  Forecasts for the USA economy, and for gold price, vary. 

*Platinum & Palladium  WPIC forecasts a second deficit year for Pt.  Demand for Pt is growing.  Potential for substitution.

*Oil  OPEC+ talks 30Nov-01Dec, and growth outlook are key to considering extending quotas. 

Coal  China’s ‘unofficial’ bans on imports of Australia material is leading to suboptimal trade patterns.

*Iron Ore  China’s crude steel consumption is up strongly.  Steel mill inventories are down.

Shipping  Oncoming Brazilian wet season pushing freight rates higher, adding to China-Australia tensions. 

General 

*Port of Singapore – Shipping:  reduced bulk traffic with slow tanker traffic & flat container traffic.

*Japan – Industrial Production:  recovering from Covid-lows but still -ve yr-on-yr growth

*USA – Industrial Production:  Continuing negative yr-on-yr growth.

*USA – Housing Starts:  Growth in Starts has been strong for 2x months.  Still at late 90’s levels.