USA Durables and Singapore Ships
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- USA economy appears to be recovering with data including durable goods. Vehicle orders with good positive growth rates.
- USA bond yields starting to lift.
- USA real 10yr bond yield has just turned positive. Still lower than the real Aust 10yr yield, hence a robust AUDUSD rate.
- Overall, while still jittery and volatile, the global economy continues to recover.
- A number of sound base metals projects are being advanced through toward production, as their respective markets continue to tighten.
*Copper Cu demand is forecast to stretch supply capacities over the next few years. SFR, Glencore
Cobalt Asian Co & Ni cathode-precursor producers are concentrated and tend to integrate operations.
Nickel POS & BSX working to develop their respective Black Swan and Ta Cuong projects.
Zinc & Lead ORN is well placed to progress development of its Prieska Cu-Zn project.
*Tin Tin’s tight squeeze continues! Inventories are very low, notably in USA & Europe.
Aluminium China’s Al sector mulling closure of 47 GW of power to reduce carbon output.
Gold .Prices lower on positive USA economic news.
*Platinum & Palladium PGM supply demand should recover to pre-covid levels in 2021.
*Oil China’s oil stockpiles have increased to ~100 days of imports. .
Coal Coal trading softer this week, pre-Indian monsoon, post China holiday. Chin AusT ban to stay.
*Iron Ore Uncertain future as different tailwinds and headwinds collide.
Shipping Cape rates softened. Panamax rates strengthened.
*Singapore Port – ship traffic: Segments recovering from pandemic in 2020, at different rates.
*Base metal Pinch-point graphs: Prices responding to low stocks and growing demand.
*USA – bond yields: 10yr real rates lifted in the past month, and 3yr term rates lifted a little.
*USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronics orders: Durable, vehicles & electronics all +ve.