USA Durables and Singapore Ships

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • USA economy appears to be recovering with data including durable goods. Vehicle orders with good positive growth rates.
  • USA bond yields starting to lift.
    • USA real 10yr bond yield has just turned positive.  Still lower than the real Aust 10yr yield, hence a robust AUDUSD rate. 
  • Overall, while still jittery and volatile, the global economy continues to recover.   
  • A number of sound base metals projects are being advanced through toward production, as their respective markets continue to tighten.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Cu demand is forecast to stretch supply capacities over the next few years.  SFR, Glencore

Cobalt  Asian Co & Ni cathode-precursor producers are concentrated and tend to integrate operations.  

Nickel  POS & BSX working to develop their respective Black Swan and Ta Cuong projects.

Zinc & Lead  ORN is well placed to progress development of its Prieska Cu-Zn project.  

*Tin  Tin’s tight squeeze continues!  Inventories are very low, notably in USA & Europe.      

Aluminium  China’s Al sector mulling closure of 47 GW of power to reduce carbon output.

Gold  .Prices lower on positive USA economic news.   

*Platinum & Palladium  PGM supply demand should recover to pre-covid levels in 2021. 

*Oil  China’s oil stockpiles have increased to ~100 days of imports. . 

Coal  Coal trading softer this week, pre-Indian monsoon, post China holiday.  Chin AusT ban to stay. 

*Iron Ore  Uncertain future as different tailwinds and headwinds collide. 

Shipping  Cape rates softened.  Panamax rates strengthened.

General 

*Singapore Port – ship traffic:  Segments recovering from pandemic in 2020, at different rates.

*Base metal Pinch-point graphs:  Prices responding to low stocks and growing demand. 

*USA – bond yields:  10yr real rates lifted in the past month, and 3yr term rates lifted a little.

*USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronics orders:  Durable, vehicles & electronics all +ve.