Shipping, CPI & Gold

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  … really!  Do read these! *

Matau’s Comments:

  • Shipping issues include inability for shipping companies to organise crew-changeover at many ports due to covid-19 restrictions, lack of flights and quarantine regulations.  This will impact most formats of shipping. 
    • Conceivably the issue regarding crew-changeovers will also have some impact on how airlines manage their crew’s flight hours and breaks from flight times.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Resources depletion, and limits to operating at reduced (porphyry) grades.  Outlook tight.

Cobalt  DRC artisanal miners integrated into a formal structure under EGC.  

*Nickel  AZS’ – Andover deposit.  Pedigreed operators.  Considerable potential. 

Zinc & Lead  Zn supply & demand forecasts.  Pb outlook buoyed by limited Li supply.

Tin  Alphamin has more promising intercepts at Mpama South.      

*Aluminium  Yunnan’s hydropower is attracting relocations of China’s Al capacity.

*Gold  USA CPI at +2.4% means negative real 10 yr bond rates, and potential Au price increases. 

*Platinum & Palladium  Pt & Pd market conditions are shaping up for further price increases. 

*Oil  Markets in turmoil over USA pipeline issues, Indian covid situation, and demand outlook. 

*Coal  Unusual trades emerging to plug ‘Australia-ban’ supply gaps.  China needs to ‘keep the lights on’.

*Iron Ore  China’s industrial and environmental, policies … signalling shifts.  Policy goals vs GDP growth.

Shipping  Asian freight rates up on strong commodity markets.

General 

*USA CPI:   drives negative USA 10y bond yields which may promote gold prices.

*Port Hedland – Iron ore Shipments:  total shipments are flat though non-China offtake is growing.

*Singapore Port – Shipping traffic:  Bulk carriers, tankers and container growth is recovering.  However the numbers for passenger ships have seemingly vanished.

Gold – supply-demand:  demand is recovering for jewellery, bar&coin and central bank buying.