USA – IP & House starts

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • For April though June, the base months in 2020 were usually the lowest data base-readings during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases.   Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels as a guide. 
  • Pinch point graphs for base metals remain tight.
  • USD has jumped in valur on expectations of yield increases.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  China’s efforts to dictate pricing (by releasing stockpiles are likely in vain.  

Cobalt  COB to complete pilot plant program and initiate demonstration plant.  

*Nickel  Ni will be the key beneficiary of EV market growth.

Zinc & Lead  .Aust govt forecasts Zn surplus to 2026, though known factors may limit that outcome.  

Tin  Sn market remains very tight with several supply issues amid increasing demand.      

Aluminium  China’s Al output reduced in May due in part to restrictions in power consumption.

*Gold  Inflation expectations cited as a key price driver in the near term.   

Platinum & Palladium  Sales of American Eagle (Pt) coins are at 2nd highest record levels yr-to-date.

*Oil  Near term demand expected to be robust.   

Coal  Settlements for SSCC (Jun21Qtr) < thermal;  plus LVPCI settled for Sep21Qtr up strongly. 

*Iron Ore  China wants to be, but is not, in control of iron ore prices. 

Shipping  Freight rates in Asian regions up across all vessel types. 

General 

USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation:  Improving but below pre-covid levels.

USA – Housing Starts:  Improving but below pre-covid levels.