Gold demand, Durables USA, IP Germany & UK

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • Further flooding in China continues to disrupt transport, though industry reports little (direct) impact.
  • Base metal pinch-point graphs remain very tight.  Markets are now considering something they have ignored for years … the “fundamentals”, which are carrying more weight than the other market force:  “sentiment”.
  • USA’s demand for Sn, Pb & Al is import (competition) dependent.  Most inventories are stockpiled in locations closer to the masjor demand centres, China and other Asia.  
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year.  Total demand has been similarly flat, though segmental makeup of that demand has varied considerably through the year. 
  • IP for Germany and UK has recovered to the pre-covid doan-trend.  It remains to be seen whether that downtrend continues. 
  • USA is, (somewhat like China), reporting Durable goods orders recovery to above pre-covid levels.  Will these level be sustained, or impacted by the current covid wave?
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  China’s scrap Cu imports are surging, seeing some concerns about demand for primary Cu.  

Cobalt  Jervois Mining (JRV) expanding into downstream Co processing.  

*Nickel  Poseidon Nickel (POS)’ scoping study on Black Swan.  Tesla filed a patent on recovery of Ni & Co from batteries. 

Zinc & Lead  Teck’s Red Dog output recovered from a yr ago.  China’s transport has been disrupted by flooding.  

Tin  USA has no primary production capacity for Sn or Pb, and relies on imports. 

Aluminium  USA’s supply of Al is subject to import dependency, competing with other global users for supply..

*Gold  The current Au market is not a picture that you see too often.  All factors are rising at once.

Platinum & Palladium  Global demand for Pt bar & coin and ETFs is strong. 

Oil  Oil demand outlook is subject to impacts from the covid-19 pandemic. 

Iron Ore  *China’s steel production cap has not been successful, but casts shadows on growth forecasts. 

Shipping  *Congestion patterns in Chinese ports not expected to normalise until early 2022.

General 

*World Gold – JuneQtr supply/demand:  Total demand was flat.  Segments changed over the yr.

*USA – Durable Goods Orders et al:  Durables recovered to pre-covid levels.

*Germany – Industrial Production et al:  IP has recovered to pre-covid down-trend.

*United Kingdom – Industrial Production et al:  IP has recovered to pre-covid down-trend.