USA-IP, China-Tspt.

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s transport data reports freight traffic has largely recovered, though passenger traffic has redcovered to about half way to pre-covid levels.
  • Copper production in Chile is threatened by water shortages. 
  • Gold price has been fairly flat for a year, and may have found a floor.  Sentiment is a key driver.  Investors should include production growth among their investment criteria.
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight tight markets.  Matau believes such short supply is ill-positioned to feed supply into the strong growth forecasts for uptake (particularly manufacture) of ‘new-energy’ goods.  

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Water shortages threaten Cu production in Chile.  

*Cobalt  New Zambian President to ramp up Cu & Co mining.   

Nickel  Supply, Demand & Quality – Sulphide or NPI.  The Ni market could bifurcate.

Zinc & Lead  Pb in deep backwardation.  Zn: AON in Gabon is testing a long strike length with good results.  

Tin  Producers struggling to lift production to meet high prices. 

Aluminium  Tomago Al smelter (NSW) to move toward renewable power.

Gold  USA’s economic recovery has slowed.  Fed may slow the taper plan. 

Platinum & Palladium  Major Pt miners leaning to renewable power generation to avoid Sth Africa’s unstable system.

*Oil  Slowig demand for crude oil is in contrast to increased OPEC+ output. 

*Iron Ore  Demand growth for iron ore historically outstripped steel.  However that may be in balance now.

*Shipping  Demand for bulk-freight shipping is strong.

General 

*USA – New House Starts:  on mo-on-mo data growth is slow.

*China – freight & passenger traffic:  Freight largely recovered.  Passengers only half way.

*USA – Industrial Production:  IP has returned to slightly above the pre-covid down-trend.