Shipping

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • China’s power constraints and blockading of roads & highways in Peru are impacting the production output of several of the base metals.  (mostly of Cu & Zn +/- Pb).  We believe these events will have temporary effect, but the markets are already tight.
  • The world is progressively recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic.  Increasingly talk is turning to ‘living with covid’, however it appears that many people are not paying attention and are expecting the ‘old normal’ to return.  Epidemiologists caution that we still need to be careful, as there is still much to be learned about the Covig-19 strain(s). 
  • Shipping data illustrates the slowing of activity in response to multiple drivers that are restricting supply and demand for many commodities during a period of high uncertainty, despite economies showing signs of recovery.  Recovery will progress and make good, but at present it is a battle. 
  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight (very) tight markets.  The prices are now responding strongly to low stocks.
  • New Energy Vehicles’ much touted massive growth rates might grind to a halt in a couple of years if some battery configuration changes do not become available.  Matau believes that the resources industry will struggle to supply raw materials at the optimistic growth rates of the manufacturers and entrepreneurs.  Actual rates will have to reduce to the actual rates of raw materials supply growth.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  The power crises could shift forecasts of copper oversupply next year to shortfalls.  + Mexico – changes its rules!

Cobalt  Sales of NEVs reduce upon cuts to subsidies in China.  Co is scarce and sought after. 

*Nickel  If Ni-free batteries do not become available, the EV revolution grind to halt in only ~2 years. 

Zinc & Lead  Refined output of Zn is stressed (power shortages).  China’s Pb-acid battery output is growing.  

Tin  The tin market has yet to resolve the supply-demand imbalance evident throughout this year. 

Aluminium  Rusal plans to supply Al to China to meet its (uncharacteristic) shortfall in production. 

Gold  Gold price up fractionally (in USD).  Hallmarking is now mandatory in India.

Platinum & Palladium  Top 10 Platinum producers. 

*Oil  Power cuts in China.  Coal shortages in India.  A scramble for petrol in Britain.  … and more!

*Iron Ore  China’s northern steel mills asked to cut production from mid-Nov21 to mid-Mar22. 

*Shipping  Dry bulk market – two more solid Qtrs.  Watch Mar22Qtr & Jun22Qtr. 

General 

Port of Singapore – Shipping:  impacted by numerous disruptive forces. Containers are strongest.

Port Hedland – Iron Ore:  impacted by numerous disruptive forces.  Excl-China sources have best growth.

USA – Yields, Gold, Copper & Oil prices:  As expected

USA Energy End Use:  Trying to recover from disruption(s), but how much will it achieve?