Singapore, Port Hedland, LME

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

  • Base metals’ pinchpoint graphs continue to highlight (very) tight markets.  The prices are responding strongly to low stock levels.  
    • High prices have still NOT drawn additional stocks onto exchanges for: Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni nor Sn.  
      • In fact for most of these stock levels are continuing to decline despite high prices. 
      • Implies very tight markets.
  • LME – what happens if LME runs out of inventory?
  • New Energy Vehicles’ much touted massive growth rates might grind to a halt in a couple of years if some battery configuration changes do not become available. 
    • Matau believes that the resources industry will struggle to supply raw materials at the optimistic growth rates touted by manufacturers and entrepreneurs.  
    • Actual rates will have to work to actual rates of raw materials supply growth.  That said the critical NEV commodities present some attractive investment opportunities.

SUMMARY  

Copper  Codelco’s Chinese customers reluctant to sign supply contracts due to backwardation. 

Cobalt  China Molybdenum (CMOC) has increased Co output.   

Nickel  Indonesia’s anti-monopoly agency is investigating domestic smelters. 

Zinc & Lead  Zn TC’s steady.   AON’s Kroussou Pb-Zn project has large scale promise. 

Tin  Extreme tightness continues in the tin markets. 

Aluminium  China’s power curbs continue . 

Gold  Prices increased, responding to USA CPI data. 

Platinum & Palladium  Palladium – a market summary.

Oil  Oil prices increased – Significant new supply cannot be brought to market quickly. 

Iron Ore  Prices continue to reduce.  Property sector accounts for about a quarter of China’s steel demand.

Shipping  Dry-bulk sea freight posted its first rise in five weeks.

General 

Port of Singapore – shipping:  traffic reduced in October, for all but tankers.

Port Hedland – Iron Ore:  Shipments widely down though Indonesia & Vietnam are well up.

LME – what happens if LME exhausts its stocks:  It is really tight.  Policies are being reconsidered.