by Marg | Mar 18, 2019 | Commodity Review, Now Available
China
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
SUMMARY
*Copper Pakistan’s military to take a key role in development of Reko Diq.
*Cobalt Sector investors may not appreciate how quickly EVs are being adopted.
*Nickel Nickel Sulphate: demand growth to be driven by the auto and chemicals industries.
*Zinc & Lead Namibian Zn refinery suspends operations. Global Pb markets to be in ‘sizable’ deficit for 2019.
Tin Reduced Chinese consumption in 2018 was offset by consumption in the rest of the world.
Aluminium Venezuela: no power, no aluminium.
Gold USD gold price fell against others, so at least USD gold price increased.
Platinum & Palladium Pd price at record levels. Russia considered export bans for Pd.
*Oil Price gains limited by concerns of rising USA production. OPEC meeting this (16-17th) weekend.
Coal Australian HCC exports continue to be stable. Outlook on China ports still uncertain.
Iron Ore India’s iron ore imports up significantly in 9mo to Dec18. Exports also decreased markedly.
Shipping Capesize rates recovered.
General
*Japan LNG prices : prices may be about to bottom, though perhaps not just yet.
*USA & Australia – bond yields: curves approaching inversion.
*China Industrial and Energy Output: Strong growth in electricity, gas, batteries, glass.
by Marg | Jan 14, 2019 | Commodity Review, Now Available
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Base metal inventories remain tight. Most focus still remains on sentiment, tariffs and trade wars.
SUMMARY
*Copper Outlook for fresh Chinese demand lifts prices.
*Cobalt Opposition wins elections in DRC. UN to evaluate results.
*Nickel Vale has long term plans to continue mining at Sudbury, based on outlook for Ni.
*Zinc & Lead Zn price is disconnected from fundamentals. Pb sees Chinese pre-NewYear stockpiling.
Tin Chinese imports of Sn content from Myanmar are down yr-on-yr. .
Aluminium Consider aluminium as a leading indicator, and a metric of Asian growth and activity (as well as copper).
Gold Goldman’s forecasts a higher gold price in 2019.
Platinum & Palladium High spot Pd prices may lead to substitution by Pt, if outlook is sustained.
*Oil OPEC cut supply, but USA playing a key part in oil oversupply.
*Coal Benchmark coking coal prices. Aust and Indonesia lose thermal market share to Russia & USA.
Iron Ore RIO reports fire at Cape Lambert terminal.
Shipping Panamax rates reduced this week, despite increased fuel prices.
General
*Bond Yields, curves and margins: USA rates still ‘normal, but tight. Aust short end inverted.
*PinchPoint updates: Inventories continue to reduce, regardless of (sentiment driven) prices.
*Baker Hughes Rig Counts: Expect Rig counts to reduce in current lower oil price environment.
