Tag: deficit

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Pakistan’s military to take a key role in development of Reko Diq.

*Cobalt  Sector investors may not appreciate how quickly EVs are being adopted.

*Nickel  Nickel Sulphate:  demand growth to be driven by the auto and chemicals industries.

*Zinc & Lead  Namibian Zn refinery suspends operations.  Global Pb markets to be in ‘sizable’ deficit for 2019.

Tin  Reduced Chinese consumption in 2018 was offset by consumption in the rest of the world.

Aluminium  Venezuela:  no power, no aluminium.

Gold  USD gold price fell against others, so at least USD gold price increased.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd price at record levels.  Russia considered export bans for Pd.

*Oil  Price gains limited by concerns of rising USA production.  OPEC meeting this (16-17th) weekend.

Coal  Australian HCC exports continue to be stable.  Outlook on China ports still uncertain.

Iron Ore  India’s iron ore imports up significantly in 9mo to Dec18.  Exports also decreased markedly.

Shipping  Capesize rates recovered.

General 

*Japan LNG prices :  prices may be about to bottom, though perhaps not just yet.

*USA & Australia – bond yields:  curves approaching inversion.

*China Industrial and Energy Output:  Strong growth in electricity, gas, batteries, glass.

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190222 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

USA  – Japan

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Supply issues continue to abound, keeping some tension in most metals markets.  However as China’ ShFE resumed trading, seasonal factors are reported to have led to significant increases in Cu and Zn stock on that exchange.

Geopolitical factors continue to daunt and disrupt global investment and industrial markets.

 SUMMARY  

Copper  Chile tightening use of water (by miners) in the Atacama.

Cobalt  NGOs oppose LME plans for banning tainted (DRC) et al) cobalt.

*Nickel  Ni deficits forecast to continue in 2019.  Eramet to focus on reducing costs in New Caledonia

Zinc & Lead  Zn TCs increased.

Tin  Bolivia’s Huanuni Sn mine is now delivering concentrates.

Aluminium  Chinese smelters appear to be struggling under low prices.

Gold  Contradictory macro data and news flow have kept the commodity market volatile recently.

Platinum & Palladium  AMCU has sent strike warnings to Sibanye-Stillwater, and six other companies.

Oil  Prices rising on optimism on progress in China-USA trade talks.

Coal  Coking coal prices remain in uptrend, despite Chinese port blocks.

Iron Ore  Significant amounts of Vale’s export iron ore is at risk during 2019.

Shipping  Freight rates recovering post Chinese NY.

General  *USA – Treasury Yield Curves:  quite flat but key curves not inverted.

*USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation:  Positive growth at reasonable rates.

*USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods:

*Japan – Orders to Machinery (segments):  Orders fell in December but were +ve over 12 mo.