Tag: fundamentals

Commodity Review 20181026  by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20181026 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China Freight, Industry and Energy, World Steel

The markets’ commentary increasingly flags the polarisation of fundamental factors vs sentiment drivers, that appear to be the dominant forces. What catalyst is necessary for the industry fundamentals to grab the attention of sentiment?

SUMMARY  

Copper  Sentiment and fundamental conditions for Cu remain poles apart.

Cobalt  Glencore resumed output from DRC operations at Katanga.

Nickel  Eramet’s New Caledonia operations are struggling, under high costs (and protests).

Zinc & Lead  Sentiment & analysts rate Zn’s outlook poorly, though fundamentals are tight.  Pb – G1A & TKM.  .

Tin  Change from last week’s opinion.  Now ‘increased difficulty’ in supply from Indonesia.

Aluminium  Global aluminium production growth has ground to a halt this year.  Outages, alumina (& tariffs).

Gold  Bhar is “cautiously bullish” on gold prices.

Platinum & Palladium  Amplats’ ouput of Pt increased on improved operations’ performance.

Oil  Oil market in turmoil.  Sanctions on Iran, China-USA trade war, sentiment.  Potential for oversupply.

Coal  Metallurgical coal tighter.  Indian demand, Chinese port restrictions.  Thermal better supplied.

Iron Ore  Tightness in the iron ore market looks likely to persist.

Shipping  Panamax rates down, while Cape rates stronger.

General 

China – Transport:  If Freight is a good indicator of economies, China’s growth is not slowing.

World Steel:  Continued positive production growth overall, including from China.

China – Industrial & Energy Output:  +ve growth for:  rolled steel, gas, electricity, air-conditioners, colour TV, Li-batts, plain glass.

USA – Durable goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods.  Strong positive growth