USA – Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Electricity End-Use, Bond Yields
- USA is slowing! Data this week reinforces last week’s OECD CLI implications.
- Base metal inventories continue to remain tight. Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs. Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption. However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals.
- Several metals (Ni & Co this week) are showing signs that reduced supply is likely to lead to higher prices.
- Outlook is for ‘not enough’ new mine supply in coming years (the next decade), for several key commodities.
The theme of the Resources Rising Stars conference at the Gold Coast earlier this year is appropriate: “Pick the stock, not the market”.
*Copper Codelco optimistic about long term price for Cu. Short term prices pressured by growth concerns.
*Cobalt Co price is up on news that Glencore is shutting its large DRC mine.
*Nickel Philippines’ largest exporter of ‘high’ grade Ni laterite ore is to shut upon depletion of its Reserves.
*Zinc & Lead ORN calling for ongoing need for more Zn & Cu production. Nyrstar Pb smelter stopped again.
*Tin Trump acknowledges that tariffs increase domestic prices. Delays new tariffs till after Christmas.
Aluminium Beijing announced additional import scrap quotas.
*Gold Gold price gains as faith in Central Banks is about to be tested again.
Platinum & Palladium Progress … of sorts … being made in wage negotiations with AMCU..
*Oil .Russia & China have stuck by Venezuela, though that may change.
Coal A weaker CNY, a safety campaign, shipment restrictions, though premium HCC is preferred.
Iron Ore Beijing’s stimulus restraint driven by low infrastructure spend, impacting prices.
Shipping Baltic indices, Cape, Panamax & Handymax up this week.
Port Hedland – Iron Ore shipments: Shipments down in July after a bumper June effort.
USA – Electricity End-Use: Total demand slowing, mostly in residential demand.
USA – Bond Yields: A historical review + Current 10yr-2yr curves ‘almost’ inverted. 10yr-3mo is!
USA – Industrial Production – Capacity Utilisation: Really slow IP growth. Cap Util is sub optimal.
USA – Housing Starts: House starts almost stalled.