Tag: OPEC

Commodity Review 20191004 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20191004 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • OPEC+ participants are girding their loins for potentially more production cut commitments.
  • The USA – China tariff talks & trade wars continue to stunt trade oriented decisions.  Some unexpected consequences (see tin).
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  In a broad sense not much has changed.  Base metal prices are struggling to cope with the negative fears driven largely by the USA-China trade tensions.  Low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously. 

 SUMMARY  

*Copper  Trade wars continue to deter activity.  Outlook for future supply remains tight.

Cobalt  Co inventory from the previously failed Fanya Metal Exchange to be auctioned on Oct 5th.

*Nickel  Ni prices responding to low refined Ni stocks and looming ban on ore exports.

*Zinc & Lead  Northern Canadian infrastructure proposed to deliver remote new mine production.   IBG Citronen.

*Tin  A bad vegetable harvest stings tariff affected USA steel makers.

Aluminium  Vietnam imposes anti-dumping tariffs on Chinee products.

*Gold  “Global policy uncertainty is at an all-time high”.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd prices have run to record highs, on demand growth and supply deficit.

*Oil  Nigeria prepared to make cuts to meet its OPEC+ commitments.

Coal  Chinese buying of low price met coal imports continues.

*Iron Ore  India to auction mining leases.  May disrupt local supply and require imports to balance demand.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax rates reduced this week, on easier grain & iron ore demand.

General 

*Port of Singapore Shipping Traffic:  Bulk Carriers & Tankers +ve growth.

*USA – Construction Spending:  public non-residential spending +ve, but private residential is -ve.

*USA – PMI:  Still indicating a contracting manufacturing economy.

*Japan – Industrial Production:  Overall modest contraction in IP.

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Copper’s current positive internal dynamics are increasingly at odds with its price.  It is not alone.

*Cobalt  DRC cobalt is favoured because of availability, and low As levels.

*Nickel  International consortium looking to produce Indonesian Ni for EV batteries.

Zinc & Lead  Zn Air batteries – developed and in use, for stationary storage.

Tin  ITA forecasts a slowdown In Sn demand growth, due mainly to Chinese growth rate expectations.

Aluminium  Notes at Metal Bulletin’s Aluminium Conference – Berlin.  Tariffs will not solve China’s overcapacity.

Gold  Prices are seeing little reaction & remain below key psychological level of USD 1,200/oz.

Platinum & Palladium  Zimbabwe’s policy changes aimed at attracting investment.  More change may be needed.

*Oil  The OPEC agreement has been well managed.  But, more oil needs to be discovered.

*Coal  Fire at North Goonyella!  South Africa’s new Mining Charter may need further revision(s).

Iron Ore  Chinese policy of shutting inefficient polluting mills drives demand for high grade feed materials.

Shipping  Panamax rates up while Cape rates flat, ahead of China’s October week holidays.

General 

*South American Exchange Rates:  Chile, Peru, Argentina, Brazil.

*Base Metal PinchPoint graphs:  Inventories continue to reduce (except Sn).

*World Steel:  Healthy August yr-on-yr and 12-month yr-on-yr growth.

*Seaborne Coking Coal:  Australia dominates seaborne coking coal supply but patterns are shifting.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods:  strong positive growth.