Commodity Review 20181123 – USA – by Andrew Pedler
LME metal inventories continue to decrease, tightening base metal markets even more. A variety of issues are disrupting each of the commodity markets.
SUMMARY
*Copper 2018 is turning out to be a surprisingly almost disruption-free year.
*Cobalt Cobalt supply growth might not be able to keep up with demand growth.
*Nickel It is easy to wax lyrical about reducing metal content in batteries. It has to be commercial, & work!
*Zinc & Lead Zn concentrate demand constrained by disrupted demand from smelters. Market is still tight.
Tin Sn solder expected to see boosted demand from ~2022-25 from EVs.
Aluminium WTO to consider opening investigation into USA’s section 232 Al & steel tariffs.
Gold Looking toward the G20 summit at end Nov, and potential for agreement between USA & China.
Platinum & Palladium Zimbabwe continues plans to build a refinery for PGMs & base metals.
*Oil G20 summit meetings may pre-empt the OPEC meeting in early Dec. US producers hit by prices!
Coal China’s port restrictions playing havoc with (spot) trade.
Iron Ore Falling Chinese steel prices reduced demand for high quality iron ore.
Shipping Bulk freight rates decline for a fifth week.
General
*USA TWI – correlations with commodity prices: Best for gold, and variable otherwise.
USA – Housing Starts: Down in the NorthEast and South regions in particular.
USA – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation: slowed a bit, but steady growth.
USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles & Electronics & Computers: growth in durables & vehicles.