Tag: USA oil

Commodity Review 20190201 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190201 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Steel and Gold

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Supply issues continue to abound, keeping some tension in most metals markets.  

While much is made (fears) of slowing Chinese output data, freight traffic (this week) shows material being transported about the country is growing at pace.  Also (see last week’s issue) electricity output/demand continues to grow strongly. 

A new data page has been introduced at the back – your feedback is appreciated.

SUMMARY  

*Copper  Don’t listen to what miners say.  Look at what they do”.  Cu outlook is tight!

*Cobalt  Co sales from DRC delayed further, on government concerns of U-removal technology.

*Nickel  Ni market slowly tightening.  Analysts continue to see deficits ahead.

Zinc & Lead  AZI’s progressing eval’n of Zorzone.  Zn prices high on concerns of weak Chinese refined output.

Tin  Alternative Sn supplies drawn down as Indonesian uncertainty continues.

Aluminium  Chinese smelters alternately are re-opening and shuttering capacity.  Electricity prices becoming an issue.

Gold  Central Bank buying at 2nd-highest levels on record, highest since 1971.

*Platinum & Palladium  WPIC outlook for refined Pt output to grow on increased South African and USA production.

Oil  America is producing the wrong kind of oil, for many refineries, and limiting global heavy oil output.

Coal  China’s import controls disrupting only Australian coal, so far.

*Iron Ore  Iron ore market forecast to move into deficit this year on Brazilian supply issues.  Price up on Brazilian dam breaches.

Shipping  Rates impacted by looming Chinese New Year (5 Feb) and Brazilian dam breaches.

General 

*World Gold Council:  Gold Supply & Demand – Dec Qtr is often a high demand Qtr.

*World Steel:  positive growth continues, for the world, driven by the few.

*China – Freight traffic:  strong growth.  A lot of material is being moved in China.

USA – Construction Spending:  growth is positive, slower, (and more sustainable).